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Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements?

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  • Christian Gianella
  • Corinne Chanteloup

Abstract

This paper attempts to assess the impact of exchange rate movements on Russian import and nonfuel export performance, using an error correction model. The estimation of trade equations shows that long-run price elasticities for imports and non-fuel exports are close to 0.6 and 0.7 respectively, hence relatively similar to those obtained for OECD countries. The Marshall-Lerner condition clearly holds. More precisely, we find that a 10% real appreciation (depreciation) of the currency leads on average to a non-fuel current account deterioration (improvement) of around 1% of GDP. Moreover, the short-term dynamics of the error correction model indicate that the response of the trade balance to exchange rate shocks is rapid, the adjustment being almost complete after one quarter. Finally, the evolution of import prices and non-fuel export prices of Russia, relatively to its competitors on domestic and third markets, suggests that the Russian economy lost already in 2004 the price-competitiveness advantage it had gained after the 1998 crisis. Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie : L'économie russe réagit-elle "normalement" aux mouvements de taux de change ? Cette étude vise à évaluer l'impact des mouvements du taux de change sur les importations et les exportations hors hydrocarbures de la Russie, à partir d'un modèle à correction d'erreur. Les estimations d'équation de commerce extérieur montrent que les élasticités-prix de long terme pour les importations et les exportations hors hydrocarbures se situent respectivement autour de 0.6 et 0.7, soit des valeurs similaires à celles obtenues pour les pays membres de l'OCDE. La condition de Marshall-Lerner est clairement vérifiée. Plus précisément, une appréciation (dépréciation) réelle de 10% du taux de change conduit à une dégradation (amélioration) de la balance courante hors produits pétroliers d'environ 1%. Par ailleurs, la dynamique de court terme du modèle à correction d'erreur indique que la réponse de la balance commerciale aux chocs sur le taux de change est rapide, l'ajustement étant quasiment achevé après un trimestre. Enfin, l'évolution des prix à l'import et à l'export -- hors hydrocarbures -- de la Russie, relativement à de ses concurrents sur les marchés domestiques et tiers, suggère que l'économie russe a épuisé dès 2004 l'avantage de compétitivité-prix qu'elle avait gagné après la crise de 1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gianella & Corinne Chanteloup, 2006. "Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 510, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:510-en
    DOI: 10.1787/431350563511
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    2. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sevgi SEZER, 2017. "The effects of real exchange rates and income on the trade balance: A second generation panel data analysis for transition economies and Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 171-186, Summer.
    2. Lukas Vogel & Stefan Hohberger & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 486-501, August.
    3. Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Modeling the dynamics of import in the Russian Federation using the error correction model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 88-112.
    4. Prilepskiy, Ilya (Прилепский, Илья), 2017. "Factors of Exports Dynamics and Import Substitution after the Sharp Exchange Rate Depreciation [Факторы Динамики Экспорта И Импортозамещения После Резкого Ослабления Курса Национальной Валюты]," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 100-133, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance commerciale hors hydrocarbures; commerce extérieur; compétitivité-prix; exchange rates; foreign trade; non-fuel trade balance; price elasticities; price-competitiveness; Russia; Russie; taux de change; élasticité-prix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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