IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecr/col070/11445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports

Author

Listed:
  • Cuevas, Víctor M.

Abstract

This article evaluates several of the determinants of Mexicanmanufacturing exports, using two complementary econometric methods: astructural ARIMA model, which makes it possible to estimate elasticities; anda generalized VAR model, which provides a fully dynamic perspective byestimating impulse response functions. As some of the findings are robustto changes in the econometric methodology used, the article reaches thefollowing conclusions. First, manufacturing exports are positively relatedto labour productivity and external demand; so the adverse effects of aninternational recession on Mexican exports could, to some extent, be offsetby raising worker productivity. Second, real exchange-rate depreciationdoes not increase manufacturing exports, but actually reduces them, atleast in the short run. These findings are consistent with the idea thata real depreciation not only affects demand, but also generates strongsupply-side effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuevas, Víctor M., 2010. "The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11445
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/11445
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mortimore, Michael & Vergara, Sebastián & Katz, Jorge, 2001. "La competitividad internacional y el desarrollo nacional: implicancias para la política de inversión extranjera directa (IED) en América Latina," Desarrollo Productivo 107, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. repec:ags:jaecon:44427 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    6. Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-148, March.
    7. Mungaray, Alejandro & Ramirez-Urquidy, Martin, 2007. "Capital humano y productividad en microempresas
      [Human Capital and Productivity in Microenterprises]
      ," MPRA Paper 4064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    9. Lorraine Dearden & Howard Reed & John Van Reenen, 2006. "The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: Evidence from British Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 397-421, August.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    13. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, May.
    14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    15. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    16. Boisso, Dale & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Economic Distance, Cultural Distance, and Openness in International Trade : Empirical Puzzles," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 456-484.
    17. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    18. Summary, Rebecca M, 1989. "A Political-Economic Model of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 179-182, February.
    19. L. R. Maglen, 1995. "The Role of Education and Training in the Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(2), pages 128-147, April.
    20. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Biblioteca CEPAL). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.