Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia
In this note, using the VEC model we attempt to empirically investigate the effects of oil price and monetary shocks on the Russian economy covering the period between 1997:Q1 and 2007:Q4. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.25% over the next 12 quarters, whereas that to inflation by 0.36% over the corresponding periods. We also find that the monetary shock through interest rate channel immediately affects real GDP and inflation as predicted by theory.
Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
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