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Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia

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  • Katsuya Ito

    (Fukuoka University)

Abstract

In this note, using the VEC model we attempt to empirically investigate the effects of oil price and monetary shocks on the Russian economy covering the period between 1997:Q1 and 2007:Q4. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.25% over the next 12 quarters, whereas that to inflation by 0.36% over the corresponding periods. We also find that the monetary shock through interest rate channel immediately affects real GDP and inflation as predicted by theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsuya Ito, 2008. "Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(17), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08q40019
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2016. "Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia," Working Papers 1609, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    4. Akinsola Motunrayo O. & Odhiambo N. M., 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, September.
    5. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    6. Dmitry Burakov, 2017. "Oil Prices, Economic Growth and Emigration: An Empirical Study of Transmission Channel," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 90-98.
    7. Kudrin, Alexey & Gurvich, Evsej T., 2015. "A new growth model for the Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 1/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Kudrin, Alexey & Gurvich, Evsey, 2015. "A new growth model for the Russian economy1," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 30-54.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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