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Oil Prices, Economic Growth and Emigration: An Empirical Study of Transmission Channel

Author

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  • Dmitry Burakov

    (Financial University under the Government of Russian Fedeation, Russia.)

Abstract

In this paper, we set ourselves a task to test a hypothesis of transmission channel of oil shocks to migration decisions of the population. According to the hypothesis, oil prices shocks have a direct impact on economic growth (assuming the economy s dependence on oil export s revenues) and indirectly affect migration trends according to a classical migration theory in Heckscher-Ohlin paradigm. The hypothesis is tested on the example of Russia for the period from 1990 to 2015. To detect long-term relationship between sampled variables we use vector error correction model models; for testing presence of short-run dependencies, we use Wald test. Structural and dynamic responses to shocks in short run are tested by variance decomposition and impulse response functions. In result, we are able to confirm the hypothesis. On the one hand, existence of a long-term relationship between oil prices, economic growth and emigration is established. In the short-run, we find direct causality between oil prices and economic growth, as well as between economic growth and emigration. Thereby, existence of transmission in form of indirect channel of oil prices shocks on migration decisions of households is confirmed

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Burakov, 2017. "Oil Prices, Economic Growth and Emigration: An Empirical Study of Transmission Channel," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 90-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2017-01-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood & Zafar Ahmad Sultan & Nawaz Ahmad, 2017. "Oil Price and Employment Nexus in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 277-281.
    2. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sannur Aliyev & Javid Zeynalov, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 72-80.
    3. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Zafar Ahmad Sultan & Haider Mahmood, 2017. "Oil Revenue, Public Spending, Gross Domestic Product and Employment in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 27-31.
    4. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Maleeha Mohammed Zaaf Al-Qahtani & Zafrul Allam & Nawaz Ahmad & Maham Furqan, 2020. "Urbanization, Oil Price and Pollution in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 477-482.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Oil Prices; Economic Growth; Migration; Transmission Channel; Acceleration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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