IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2018-05-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Groningen Effect Still Present in Russia: A Vector Error Correction Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Bass

    (Department of Financial Markets and Banks, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

In this article we aim to test the Groningen effect on the example of Russia. According to the Groningen effect, a boom in the resource sector leads to deterioration in other sectors of the national economy due to appreciation of the national currency. This leads to, given the openness of the economy and elasticity of global markets prices, to a decline in manufacturing sector and a rise in the services sector. The hypothesis is tested on the example of Russia. To test the hypothesis, we examine the impact of oil prices dynamics (Brent) on different sectors of Russian economy, including manufacturing, real estate services, transport and communication services over the period 1990-2016. To test the hypothesis, we use vector error correction approach and Granger causality test. The results of the study show that all the sampled variables are cointegrated in the long-run, detecting dependence of the Russian economy on oil. Short-run effects estimation show that the Groningen effect is absent in the Russian economy. Pairwise Granger causality test confirms absence of the Dutch disease as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Bass, 2018. "Is Groningen Effect Still Present in Russia: A Vector Error Correction Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 273-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-05-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/6888/3952
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6888/3952
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    2. Eggoh, Jude C. & Bangake, Chrysost & Rault, Christophe, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7408-7421.
    3. Alexeev, Michael & Conrad, Robert, 2011. "The natural resource curse and economic transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 445-461.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Brunnschweiler, Christa N., 2008. "Cursing the Blessings? Natural Resource Abundance, Institutions, and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-419, March.
    6. Katsuya Ito, 2017. "Dutch disease and Russia," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 66-70.
    7. Erling Røed Larsen, 2006. "Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 605-640, July.
    8. Hilde Bjørnland, 1998. "The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(5), pages 553-585, November.
    9. Gavin Wright & Jesse Czelusta, 2004. "WHY ECONOMIES SLOW: The Myth of the Resource Curse," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 6-38.
    10. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    11. Anne D. Boschini & Jan Pettersson & Jesper Roine, 2007. "Resource Curse or Not: A Question of Appropriability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(3), pages 593-617, September.
    12. Hutchison, Michael M, 1994. "Manufacturing Sector Resiliency to Energy Booms: Empirical Evidence from Norway, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 311-329, April.
    13. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    14. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Schneider, Friedrich, 2012. "Resource Curse and Power Balance: Evidence from Oil-Rich Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1308-1316.
    15. Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
    16. Anca Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2010. "Resource Curse or Malthusian Trap? Evidence from Oil Discoveries and Extractions," Working Papers 201001, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    17. Bjornland, Hilde Christiane, 1998. "The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(5), pages 553-585, November.
    18. Prasad, Arti & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Jashwini, 2007. "Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6506-6513, December.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ito, Katsuya, 2017. "Dutch disease and Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 66-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Bass, 2019. "Do Institutional Quality and Oil Prices Matter for Economic Growth in Russia: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 76-83.
    2. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Ogli Hajiyev, 2021. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Real Estate Loans and Mortgage Loans in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 341-354.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rian Hilmawan & Jeremy Clark, 2021. "Resource dependence and the causes of local economic growth: An empirical investigation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 596-626, July.
    2. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2017. "Natural Resources and Economic Development: New Panel Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(2), pages 363-391, February.
    3. Blanco, Luisa & Grier, Robin, 2012. "Natural resource dependence and the accumulation of physical and human capital in Latin America," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 281-295.
    4. Dauvin, Magali & Guerreiro, David, 2017. "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 212-231.
    5. Chi-Swian Wong, 2021. "Science Mapping: A Scientometric Review on Resource Curses, Dutch Diseases, and Conflict Resources during 1993–2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-48, July.
    6. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Elwasila Saeed Elamin Mohamed, 2020. "Resource Rents, Human Development and Economic Growth in Sudan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Ruba Abdullah Aljarallah, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Resource Dependency in Gulf Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 36-52.
    9. Jan Morten Dyrstad, 2015. "Resource curse avoidance: Governmental intervention and wage formation in the Norwegian petroleum sector," Working Paper Series 16715, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    10. Dauvin, Magali & Guerreiro, David, 2017. "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 212-231.
    11. Ramez Abubakr Badeeb & Jeremy Clark & Abey P. Philip, 2021. "The Nonlinear Effects of Oil Rent Dependence on Malaysian Manufacturing: Implications from Structural Change using a Markov-Regime Switching Model," Working Papers in Economics 21/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    12. Baena, César & Sévi, Benoît & Warrack, Allan, 2012. "Funds from non-renewable energy resources: Policy lessons from Alaska and Alberta," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 569-577.
    13. Boire, Sidiki & Nell, Kevin S., 2021. "The enclave hypothesis and Dutch disease effect: A critical appraisal of Mali's gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    15. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2018. "Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 186-205.
    16. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & sargolzaie, Ali & Salehnia, Narges, 2022. "Natural resources: A curse on welfare?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Nuno Torres & Óscar Afonso & Isabel Soares, 2013. "A survey of literature on the resource curse: critical analysis of the main explanations, empirical tests and resource proxies," CEF.UP Working Papers 1302, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Palakiyèm Kpemoua, 2016. "Exports And Economic Growth In Togo [Exportations Et Croissance Economique Au Togo]," Working Papers halshs-01332738, HAL.
    19. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    20. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Schneider, Friedrich, 2012. "Resource Curse and Power Balance: Evidence from Oil-Rich Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1308-1316.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; GDP sectors; Groningen effect; cointegration; causality; Dutch disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-05-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.