Estimating Argentina''s imports elasticities
The aim of this paper is to provide new estimates of the income and price elasticities of the demand for imports in Argentina. Given the non-stationary nature of the data and to avoid problems of spurious regression we applied co-integration techniques to quarterly data over the period 1970:1 -2005:4. Three results are worth mentioning. First, there is a statistically significant and stable long-run relationship between the level of imports, real income and the exchange rate. Second, in the long run, a very high-income elasticity and a low real exchange rate elasticity determine the demand for imports. This result confirms an old argument concerning Argentina's constraint to economic growth as originally developed by the well-known structural approach. Third, while the linear error correction models show problems of misspecification, a non-linear STAR model demonstrates that deviations from long-run equilibrium adjust not only in a non-linear way but also at a slower speed of adjustment than the linear one.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (1524) 594601
Fax: +44 (1524) 594244
Web page: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lums
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, March.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Luis Catão & Elisabetta Falcetti, 2002.
"Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade,"
Journal of Applied Economics,
Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 19-57, May.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
- Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
- Gallagher, Liam A & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage, and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 524-36, October.
- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
- Teräsvirta, Timo & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 1998.
"Nonlinear error-correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
265, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Nov 1998.
- Timo Teräsvirta & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001. "Non-linear error correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 277-288.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Gandolfo, Giancarlo & Petit, Maria Luisa, 1983. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation : Italy, 1960-1980," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 145-148.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
- Krueger,Anne O., 1983. "Exchange-Rate Determination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521273015, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:583372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giorgio Motta)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.