IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sca/scaewp/0518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization

Author

Listed:
  • Tony Cavoli

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan

    () (School of Public Policy, George Mason University)

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model to examine the reasons behind the capital inflow surges into selected Asian economies in the 1990s prior to the financial crisis of 1997-98. The simple analytical model reveals that persistent uncovered interest differentials and consequent capital inflows may be a consequence of complete sterilization, perfect capital mobility, sluggish response of interest rates to domestic monetary disequilibrium, or some combination of all three. Using the model as an organizing framework, the paper undertakes a series of related simple empirical tests of the dynamic links between international capital flows and the extent to which they are sterilized and uncovered interest rate differentials (UIDs) in the five crisis-hit economies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the period 1990:1 to 1997:5.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "The Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0518, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
  • Handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0518
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp-scape/0518.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2001. "Banks, Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 889-910, July.
    2. Michael P. Dooley & Donald J. Mathieson, 1992. "Exchange rate policy, international capital mobility and monetary policy instruments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 68-95.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1992. "Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    6. Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter, 1991. "Capital mobility in developing countries: Some empirical tests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1391-1398, October.
    7. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-467, May/June.
    8. Willett, Thomas D. & Keil, Manfred W. & Ahn, Young Seok, 2002. "Capital mobility for developing countries may not be so high," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 421-434, August.
    9. Hutchison, Michael M, 2003. "Intervention and Exchange Rate Stabilization Policy in Developing Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 109-127, Spring.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Khan, Mohsin, 1995. "Capital Flows in the APEC Region," MPRA Paper 8200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post‐crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, January.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-223, July.
    13. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael M., 2000. "Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 229-247, December.
    14. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1992. "Towards Capital Account Convertibility," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 4, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, September.
    3. Zhang, Chenying, 2010. "Sterilization in China: Effectiveness and Cost," Working Papers 10-29, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    4. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:2:p:262-278 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:beo:journl:v:62:y:2018:i:216:p:35-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
    7. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2013. "An empirical study of nonlinear adjustment in the UIP model using a smooth transition regression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-120.
    8. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan & Tom Willett, 2008. "Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 171-199.
    9. Kanit Sangsubhan, 2010. "Managing Capital Flows: The Case of Thailand," Chapters,in: Managing Capital Flows, chapter 15 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 325-340.
    11. David Cook & James Yetman, 2012. "Expanding central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: a compendium of risk and some evidence," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 30-75 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2014. "Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 104-128.
    13. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2012. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 386-394.
    14. Layal Mansour, 2012. "Hoarding of International Reserves and Sterilization in Dollarized and Indebted Countries : an effective monetary policy?," Working Papers halshs-00695611, HAL.
    15. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
    16. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    17. Nuttathum Chutasripanich & James Yetman, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention: strategies and effectiveness," BIS Working Papers 499, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "Economic Management in a Volatile Environment: Monetary and Financial Issues by Ramkishen S. Rajan and Sasidaran Gopalan Palgrave Macmillan , London , 2015 Pp. xx+283. ISBN 9 78 137 37151-5," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 29(2), pages 103-106, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; East Asia; interest rates; monetary sterilization; reserves;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/denussg.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.