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Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States

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  • Ronald McKinnon

Abstract

Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the United States, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciation by the creditor country will slow its economic growth and eventually cause deflation but cannot compensate for a saving-investment imbalance in the United States. Under a fixed exchange rate, however, differential adjustment in the rate of growth of money wages will more accurately reflect international differences in productivity growth. International competitiveness will be better balanced between high-growth and low-growth economies, as between Japan and the U.S. from in 1950 to 1971 and China and the U.S. from 1994 to 2005, when the peripheral country’s dollar exchange rate is fixed so that its wage growth better reflects its higher productivity growth. The qualified case for China moving toward greater flexibility in the form of a very narrow band for the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as a way of decentralizing foreign exchange transacting, is discussed.
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  • Ronald McKinnon, 2005. "Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-103, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-103
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    File URL: https://hit-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/2050683/files/D05-103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
    2. Zhang, Xiaobo & Tan, Kong-Yam, 2004. "Blunt to sharpened razor: incremental reform and distortions in the product and capital markets in China," DSGD discussion papers 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    3. Emre Ünal, 2016. "A comparative analysis of export growth in Turkey and China through macroeconomic and institutional factors," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 57-91, June.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5487 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Das, Dilip K., 2009. "The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 570-579, September.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5378 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The renminbi equilibrium exchange rate: an agnostic view," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2009. "Innovationen und Transatlantische Bankenkrise: Eine ordnungspolitische Analyse," EIIW Discussion paper disbei171, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    10. Risheng Mao & John Whalley, 2011. "Ownership Characteristics, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Labor Market Adjustment in China," NBER Working Papers 17565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5378 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paul Welfens, 2012. "Marshall-Lerner condition and economic globalization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 191-207, June.
    13. Gentisa Furxhi & Sonela Stillo & Marinela Teneqexhi, 2016. "Organizational Change: Employees Reaction Towards It," European Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejms_v1_i.
    14. Kurokawa, Yoshinori & Pang, Jiaren & Tang, Yao, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a Ricardian model with money," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 96-109.
    15. Haihong Gao, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate in China : A Long-run Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21969, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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