Real Exchange Rate in China : A Long-run Perspective
This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether Chinas rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the BalassaSemuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that Chinas industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSHs prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ronald McKinnon, 2005.
"Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States,"
Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series
d05-103, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Ronald I. McKinnon, 2006. "Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States," Chapters, in: Recent Financial Crises, chapter 8 Edward Elgar.
- Ronald McKinnon, 2005. "Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States," Discussion Papers 04-021, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- McKinnon, Ronald, 2005. "Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-64, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:21969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.