A Simple Model and Its Application in the Valuation of Five Asian Real Exchange Rates
In the current paper, a new and simple currency valuation model called the ratio model is proposed based on the Penn effect (a systematic deviation of the purchasing power parity (PPP)). The ratio model, which reduces the uncertainty of the econometric specification that many other valuation models have, is used to valuate the bilateral real exchange rates (RERs) of five Asian industrial countries and areas, namely, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, against the United States. In the early 1950s to 2009, the misalignments from the ratio model of four new industrial countries and areas converged, but those from the PPP model did not, implying the competitiveness of the ratio model against the PPP model both in currency valuation and as a RER anchor. In 2010–2011, based on the two models, the yen was overvalued by approximately 30%, whereas the Singapore dollar was undervalued by approximately 20%. However, the conclusions on the other three RERs were not consistent.
|Date of creation:||28 Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barisone, G. & Driver, R.L. & Wren-Lewis, S., 2000.
"Are Our FEERs Justified?,"
0002, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
- Kenichi Ohno, 1990. "Estimating Yen/Dollar and Mark/Dollar Purchasing Power Parities," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 700-725, September.
- Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999.
"Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia,"
in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7), pages 109-132
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2012.
"Temporal Dimension and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: a FEER / BEER Comparison,"
- Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: A FEER/BEER comparison," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 58-77.
- Taylor, Alan M. & Taylor, Mark P, 2004.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Debate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003.
"Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 022003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Christopher Garroway & Burcu Hacibedel & Helmut Reisen & Edouard Turkisch, 2010.
"The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth,"
OECD Development Centre Working Papers
292, OECD Publishing.
- Patrick Imam & Camelia Minoiu, 2011. "The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Mauritius: Evidence from Two Structural Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(6), pages 134-147, November.
- Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 07/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Wang, Yajie & Hui, Xiaofeng & Soofi, Abdol S., 2007. "Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 417-429.
- Steven Dunaway & Lamin Leigh & Xiangming Li, 2009. "How Robust Are Estimates Of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case Of China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 361-375, 08.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2005.
"On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011.
"World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
- Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012.
"New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The Case for the Chinese Renminbi,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 419-443, 04.
- SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko & Nagendra SHRESTHA & Zhaoyong ZHANG, 2010. "New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The case for the Chinese renminbi," Discussion papers 10045, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers 242010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
- Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Leland B. Yeager, 1958. "A Rehabilitation of Purchasing-Power Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 516.
- Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "Understanding the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model via its application to the valuation of Chinese renminbi," MPRA Paper 40648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Arvind Subramanian, 2010. "New PPP-Based Estimates of Renminbi Undervaluation and Policy Implications," Policy Briefs PB10-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40953. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.