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New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The Case for the Chinese Renminbi

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  • Kiyotaka Sato
  • Junko Shimizu
  • Nagendra Shrestha
  • Zhaoyong Zhang

Abstract

We estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar from 1992 to 2008. In contrast to the recent empirical studies on the EER employing a large cross-country analysis, we focus on the supply side real factors in estimating the EER by extending the Yoshikawa (1990) model. To better reflect China's processing exports in the context of growing intra-regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International Input-Output (IIO) table for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that the EER of Chinese RMB appreciates sharply from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 65 percent from the year 2000 level. Such sharp appreciation of the EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in China's current account surplus from the mid-2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of both labor and intermediate input coefficients in China.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012. "New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The Case for the Chinese Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 419-443, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:4:p:419-443
    DOI: j.1467-9701.2012.01444.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 14420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
    5. Yushi Yoshida & Shinji Takagi, 1999. "Exchange Rate Movements and Tradable Goods Prices in East Asia; An Analysis Based on Japanese Customs Data, 1988-98," IMF Working Papers 99/31, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Virginie Coudert & C├ęcile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    7. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. repec:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0374-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph Francois, 2014. "Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 275-298, May.
    3. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.
    4. Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak & Krystian Jaworski, 2014. "The quest for determinants of Chinese exchange rate policy," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(5), pages 407-432.
    5. Fukao, Kyoji & Yuan, Tangjun, 2012. "China'S Economic Growth, Structural Change And The Lewisian Turning Point," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(2), pages 147-176, December.
    6. Zhibai Zhang & Xinyue Zou, 2013. "The Ratio Model and its Application: A Revisit," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-4.
    7. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.

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