IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/10045.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The case for the Chinese renminbi

Author

Listed:
  • SATO Kiyotaka
  • SHIMIZU Junko
  • Nagendra SHRESTHA
  • Zhaoyong ZHANG

Abstract

We estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar from 1992 to 2008. In contrast to the recent empirical studies on the EER employing a large cross-country analysis, we focus on the supply side real factors in estimating the EER by extending the Yoshikawa (1990) model. To better reflect China's processing exports in the context of growing intra-regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International Input-Output (IIO) table for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that the EER of Chinese RMB appreciates sharply from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 65 percent from the year 2000 level. Such sharp appreciation of the EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in China's current account surplus from the mid-2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of both labor and intermediate input coefficients in China.

Suggested Citation

  • SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko & Nagendra SHRESTHA & Zhaoyong ZHANG, 2010. "New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The case for the Chinese renminbi," Discussion papers 10045, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:10045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/10e045.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dekle, Robert & Fukao, Kyoji & 深尾, 京司 & フカオ, キョウジ, 2009. "The Japan-U.S. Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Competitiveness of Japanese Industries," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-25, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 14420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Alessandro Prati & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
    6. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1995. "Macroeconomics and the Japanese Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233268, Decembrie.
    7. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    8. Wang, Yajie & Hui, Xiaofeng & Soofi, Abdol S., 2007. "Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 417-429.
    9. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mr. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 2007/296, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    12. Yushi Yoshida & Shinji Takagi, 1999. "Exchange Rate Movements and Tradable Goods Prices in East Asia: An Analysis Based on Japanese Customs Data, 1988-98," IMF Working Papers 1999/031, International Monetary Fund.
    13. By Shinji Takagi & Yushi Yoshida, 2001. "Exchange Rate Movements and Tradable Goods Prices in East Asia: An Analysis Based on Japanese Customs Data, 1988–1999," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 266-289.
    14. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    15. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1990. "On the Equilibrium Yen-Dollar Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 576-583, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment and total factor productivity growth in case of emerging market economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 547-564, July.
    2. Fukao, Kyoji & 深尾, 京司 & Yuan, Tangjun, 2012. "China'S Economic Growth, Structural Change And The Lewisian Turning Point," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(2), pages 147-176, December.
    3. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph Francois, 2014. "Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 275-298, May.
    4. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.
    5. Zhibai Zhang & Xinyue Zou, 2013. "The Ratio Model and its Application: A Revisit," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-4.
    6. Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak & Krystian Jaworski, 2014. "The quest for determinants of Chinese exchange rate policy," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(5), pages 407�432-4.
    7. Yana Valeryevna Dyomina, 2014. "Balance of Payments of East Asian Countries: Impact of the Coordinated Monetary Policy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 138-152.
    8. Mario Alberto Lagunes Perez & Hector Hugo Perez Villarreal, 2016. "Exchange Rate And Determinants Of Exports In Periods Of Financial Volatility In The North America Free Trade Agreement Zone,Tipo De Cambio Y Determinantes De Las Exportaciones En Periodos De Volatilid," Revista Internacional Administracion & Finanzas, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(2), pages 61-71.
    9. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    2. Sasaki, Yuri & Yoshida, Yushi, 2018. "Decomposition of Japan's trade balance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 507-537.
    3. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    4. Takatoshi Ito & Satoshi Koibuchi & Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu, 2010. "Why has the yen failed to become a dominant invoicing currency in Asia? A firm-level analysis of Japanese Exporters' invoicing behavior," NBER Working Papers 16231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2012. "The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world : A global computable general equilibrium analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 1178, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Isabella Weber & Anwar Shaikh, 2021. "The U.S.–China trade imbalance and the theory of free trade: debunking the currency manipulation argument," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3-4), pages 432-455, July.
    7. Yao, Yang, 2014. "The Chinese Growth Miracle," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 943-1031, Elsevier.
    8. Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," MPRA Paper 40978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Meixing Dai, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," Working Papers of BETA 2011-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
    11. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and World Imbalances: a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Post-Print halshs-00484808, HAL.
    12. Zhibai Zhang & Langnan Chen & Xinyue Zou, 2015. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(12), pages 1267-1281, December.
    13. ITO Takatoshi & KOIBUCHI Satoshi & SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko, 2010. "Determinants of Currency Invoicing in Japanese Exports: A firm-level analysis," Discussion papers 10034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Meng, Xianming & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith, 2013. "The Impact of an Appreciation of the Chinese Yuan on the Global Trade," Conference papers 332340, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. ITO Takatoshi & KOIBUCHI Satoshi & SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko, 2016. "Choice of Invoice Currency in Japanese Trade: Industry and commodity level analysis," Discussion papers 16031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Zhang, Zhibai, 2012. "A simple model and its application in currency valuation," MPRA Paper 40650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2018. "Currency Misalignments in the BRIICS Countries: Fixed Vs. Floating Exchange Rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1123-1151, November.
    18. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2006. "Exchange rates and investment good prices: A cross-industry comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 237-256, March.
    19. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.
    20. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:10045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.