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RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation


  • Zhibai, Zhang


The bilateral real exchange rate between Chinese renminbi (RMB) and the US dollar is studied. The panel data Penn effect model shows that the RMB was overvalued in 1980–1991 but later undervalued in 1992–2010. In 2010, it was undervalued by 36.7%. Econometric analysis and an examination of the appreciation of seventeen currencies belonging to countries and areas under the same economic development stage show that the RMB should appreciate at an annual speed of 3.2%. At this rate, the RMB misalignment in 2010 will be corrected by 2020. In the future, RMB appreciation should be realized totally from the nominal exchange rate, not partly from the nominal exchange rate and partly from the relative price level. This appreciation path satisfies the interests of both China and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," MPRA Paper 40978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40978

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.

    More about this item


    Chinese renminbi; Real exchange rate; Penn effect; Undervaluation; Appreciation;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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