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Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

Author

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  • Naoyuki Yoshino
  • Sahoko Kaji
  • Tamon Asonuma

Abstract

The paper considers the optimal transition path for China's exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime? To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 36-55, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:22:y:2014:i:3:p:36-55
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2014.12067.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:chinae:v:25:y:2017:i:1:p:32-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes : Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24519, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Aihua Wang & Faruk Balli & Xiumin Li, 2015. "Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 635-650, October.
    4. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    5. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2015. "Dynamic Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in East Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 624-637, August.
    6. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    7. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Asonuma, Tamon, 2016. "Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China’s move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-37.
    8. repec:bla:apacel:v:31:y:2017:i:1:p:3-20 is not listed on IDEAS

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