Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China
This paper analyzes the optimal transition of the exchange rate regime in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). How the PRC can successfully reach the desired regime—whether a basket peg or floating regime—from the current dollar-peg regime remains a major question. To answer it, we develop a dynamic small open-economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies toward the basket-peg or floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies to those of maintaining the dollar-peg regime. Quantitative analysis using PRC data from Q1 1999 to Q4 2010 leads to two conclusions. First, a gradual adjustment toward a basket-peg regime seems the most appropriate option for the PRC, and would minimize the welfare losses associated with a shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to a basket peg is the second-best solution. This is preferable to a sudden shift to a floating regime, since it would enable the authorities to implement optimal weights efficiently in order to achieve policy goals once a decision has been made to adopt a basket-peg regime.
|Date of creation:||29 Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: (81-3) 3593-5571
Web page: http://www.adbi.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Takatoshi Ito & Eiji Ogawa & Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1999.
"How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?,"
NBER Working Papers
6729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007.
"The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1918, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Working Papers 112007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011.
"China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification,"
32642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "RMB internationalisation and currency co-operation in East Asia," Working Papers 125, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
- Eiji Ogawa & Takatoshi Ito, 2000.
"On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement,"
NBER Working Papers
8002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Robert Hugh Davis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.