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The Exchange Rate System Reform in China: US Pressure, Implicit Gradual Appreciation and Explicit Exchange Rate Bands


  • Paul S. L. Yip

    (Department of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

  • Yiu-Kuen Tse

    (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore)

  • Yingjie Dong

    (Business School, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing)


This paper provides a review and empirical investigation of the exchange rate system reform in China over the period between July 2005 and January 2017. We describe the People's Bank of China's (PBoC's) initial achievements and subsequent mistakes in the reform. We note that the central bank's initial honoring of its implicit indication of gradual appreciation played a significant role in its success in the reform initially. However, because of the US pressure for faster renminbi (RMB) appreciation, the PBoC's subsequent violation of the implicit indication of gradual appreci- ation triggered substantial speculative in ows and hence excessive RMB appreciation and volatility between March 2006 and July 2008. We find that during the first ten years of the reform, the PBoC was actually monitoring the RMB-USD exchange rate instead of the nominal elective exchange rate (NEER). This policy failure was one of the reasons for the substantial drop in China's foreign reserves amid the strengthening of the USD between 2014 and early 2017. The PBoC's mini deval- uation on 11 August 2015 was another mistake that had thereafter triggered sharp depreciation and high volatility of the RMB. On the other hand, the several incidences of widening of the RMB-USD exchange rate band over the sampling period was found to have only relatively mild e ect on the volatility of the RMB.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul S. L. Yip & Yiu-Kuen Tse & Yingjie Dong, 2017. "The Exchange Rate System Reform in China: US Pressure, Implicit Gradual Appreciation and Explicit Exchange Rate Bands," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1710, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1710

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, April.
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    3. McKinnon Ronald I, 2006. "China's New Exchange Rate Policy: Will China Follow Japan into a Liquidity Trap?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(5), pages 1-7, April.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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    More about this item


    fixed exchange rate system; GARCH model; nominal e ective exchange rate; renminbi;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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