IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v14y2006i4p21-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Exchange Rate in China: A Long‐run Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Haihong Gao

Abstract

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long‐run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply‐side model, the Balassa—Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)

Suggested Citation

  • Haihong Gao, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate in China: A Long‐run Perspective," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 21-37, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:14:y:2006:i:4:p:21-37
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00028.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00028.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00028.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 109-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Ricardo Faria, Joao & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel, 2003. "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Implications for growth and the PPP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 241-253, June.
    5. Ms. Tao Wang, 2004. "China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2004/018, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the renminbi," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 16-21, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. XU, Yingfeng, 2009. "Relevant international experience of real exchange rate adjustment for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 440-451, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haihong Gao, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate in China : A Long-run Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21969, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Zhibai Zhang & Xinyue Zou, 2013. "The Ratio Model and its Application: A Revisit," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-4.
    3. Xu, Yingfeng, 2008. "Lessons from Taiwan's experience of currency appreciation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 53-65, March.
    4. Dupuy, Philippe & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne, 2010. "The Optimal Path of the Chinese Renminbi," MPRA Paper 26107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, "undated". "China�s Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: A Tale of Apples and Pirates," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0805, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Peter J. Montiel & Luis Servén, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth: Is there a Link?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-18, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 29-56, December.
    8. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: an agnostic view," Sciences Po publications 2006-13, Sciences Po.
    9. Prasad, Eswar, 2014. "Global Implications of the Renminbi’s Ascendance," ADBI Working Papers 469, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "Empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5121 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Nienke Oomes & Vahram Stepanyan & Gohar Minasyan & Ara Stepanyan, 2009. "In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued?," IMF Working Papers 2009/049, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2012. "A monetary model of China–US trade relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-238.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/685 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 36-55, July.
    17. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    18. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "A comparison of the BEER and Penn effect models via their applications on the valuation of the Renminbi," MPRA Paper 40649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. James Laurenceson, "undated". "China�s exchange rate policy: the case against abandoning the dollar peg," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0105, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    20. Cheong, Calvin W.H. & Sinnakkannu, Jothee & Ramasamy, Sockalingam, 2017. "On the predictability of carry trade returns: The case of the Chinese Yuan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 358-376.
    21. Eswar S. Prasad & Lei Ye, 2011. "The renminbi’s role in the global monetary system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 127-197.
    22. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2015. "Assessing Asian Equilibrium Exchange Rates as Policy Instruments," Discussion papers 15038, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:14:y:2006:i:4:p:21-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.