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Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010

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  • Zhang, Yanbing
  • Hua, Xiuping
  • Zhao, Liang

Abstract

How do macroeconomic variables affect housing prices? In this paper we apply a non-linear modeling approach, the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX), to investigate determinants of housing prices in China over the period 1999:01 to 2010:06. The NARMAX approach, combined with the famous Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), has an advantage over prevailing methods in that it automatically selects linear and non-linear forms of variables and the numbers of corresponding lags according to statistical properties. Estimation results mainly identify some key monetary and price variables in interpreting housing price dynamics, including most notably mortgage rate, producer price, broad money supply and real effective exchange rate. Meanwhile, real economic variables such as income are not independently significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2349-2361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.06.025
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Ling-Yun & Wen, Xing-Chun, 2017. "Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 305-312.
    2. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    3. Kang, Hsin-Hong & Liu, Shu-Bing, 2014. "The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on housing prices in China and Taiwan: A quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 356-362.
    4. Chen, W.D., 2016. "Policy failure or success? Detecting market failure in China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 109-121.
    5. Gregory C. Chow & Linlin Niu, 2015. "Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Zhang, Dingsheng & Cheng, Wenli & Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2013. "Increasing returns, land use controls and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 789-795.
    7. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2015. "Housing market dynamics in China: Findings from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    8. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori & Wang Chen, 2014. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Evidence from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel in China," Discussion Papers 1428, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    9. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2015. "Bubble or riddle? An asset-pricing approach evaluation on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 376-383.
    10. Liu, Chunping & Ou, Zhirong, 2017. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE-VAR," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. repec:eee:regeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chen, Zhongfei, 2014. "The housing market in Beijing and delays in sales: A fractional polynomial survival model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 296-300.
    13. Lu Zhang & Dirk Bezemer, 2016. "Finance and growth in China, 1995–2013: more liquidity or more development?," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(3), pages 613-631.
    14. Wen, Xing-Chun & He, Ling-Yun, 2015. "Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 257-268.
    15. Liang, Wenquan & Lu, Ming & Zhang, Hang, 2016. "Housing prices raise wages: Estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 70-81.
    16. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2015. "What drives housing dynamics in China? A sign restrictions VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; Monetary policy; NARMAX; China;

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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