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On the Imbalance Between the Real Estate Market and the Stock Markets in China

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  • GAIYAN ZHANG
  • HUNG-GAY FUNG

Abstract

This article explores the imbalance between China's real estate market, which is booming, and the stock market, which has plunged over four years. Our empirical analysis shows that the two markets are systematically negatively related due to fund flows. The plummeting stock indexes are partly caused by the surge in the property market. In the meantime, the stock composite index is found to be significant in explaining housing-price movements, which are also affected by the inflation rate and hot money inflows. Policy measures redirecting the influx of funds from the housing market to the stock markets will help structural adjustment in stock markets, which is one of the nation's key tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaiyan Zhang & Hung-Gay Fung, 2006. "On the Imbalance Between the Real Estate Market and the Stock Markets in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 26-39, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:chinec:v:39:y:2006:i:2:p:26-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Mylène Gaulard, 2014. "La burbuja inmobiliaria en China," Post-Print halshs-01086912, HAL.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lee, Jen-Sin & Huang, Gow-Liang & Kuo, Chin-Tai & Lee, Liang-Chien, 2012. "The momentum effect on Chinese real estate stocks: Evidence from firm performance levels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2392-2406.
    4. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali, 2020. "Integration between real estate and stock markets: new evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 887-900, April.
    5. Khalid Almeshal & Nader Naifar, 2016. "A quantile regression approach and nonlinear analysis with Archimedean copulas to explain the movements of residential real estate prices," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 374-395.
    6. Chi-Wei Su & Xiao-Cui Yin & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hai-Gang Zhou, 2019. "Are the stock and real estate markets integrated in China?," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 741-760, December.
    7. Mylène Gaulard, 2014. "Les dangers de la bulle immobilière chinoise," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 77-96.
    8. Guo, Feng & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2010. "Does "hot money" drive China's real estate and stock markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 452-466, June.
    9. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    10. Lee, Chien Chiang & Chang, Chun Ping, 2012. "The Demand for Money in China: A Reassessment Using the Bounds Testing Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 74-94, March.
    11. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing prices : a case study of Chinese experience in 1999-2010," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Xiangyu Chen & Jittima Tongurai, 2021. "The Relationship Between China’s Real Estate Market and Industrial Metals Futures Market: Evidence from Non-price Measures of the Real Estate Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 527-561, December.
    13. Ekta Sikarwar & Ganesh Kumar Nidugala, 2018. "Effect of Central Bank Intervention in Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1), pages 60-95, April.
    14. Korhan Gokmenoglu & Siamand Hesami, 2019. "Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 687-707, April.
    15. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Nasha Li & Lin Zou, 2017. "A New Approach to Modeling Sector Stock Returns in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(5), pages 305-322, September.
    16. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ming-Chu & Tsai, Huey-Cherng & Liou, Chia-Ho, 2014. "Hot money effect or foreign exchange exposure? Investigation of the exchange rate exposures of Taiwanese industries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 75-96.
    17. Fengyun Liu & Shuji Matsuno & Reza Malekian & Jin Yu & Zhixiong Li, 2016. "A Vector Auto Regression Model Applied to Real Estate Development Investment: A Statistic Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, October.
    18. Hilliard, Jitka & Zhang, Haoran, 2015. "Size and price-to-book effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 40-55.

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