IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qld/uqeaer/01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China�s exchange rate policy: the case against abandoning the dollar peg

Author

Abstract

This paper critically comments on the policy literature surrounding China�s exchange rate regime. It first seeks to expose as myths several popularly raised contentions regarding the dollar peg employed by China, including the belief that the RMB is clearly undervalued and that its value is a prominent cause of the U.S trade deficit. The paper then describes a consensus position that has emerged which argues that in the interests of better promoting its own macroeconomic stability, China should abandon the peg in favor of a more flexible exchange rate regime. We see numerous weaknesses in this position but a few stand out. Available data do not suggest that flexible regimes outperform fixed regimes in terms of inflationary outcomes. Moving to a flexible regime is also far from proximate policy response to the problems that are in evidence in China�s economy. Institutional realities that make moving to a flexible regime difficult also appear to have been seriously overlooked. The paper concludes by noting that in the longer term moving to a more flexible regime may be in China�s best interests. But for now, the focus needs to be firmly in the area of domestic financial reform.

Suggested Citation

  • James Laurenceson, "undated". "China�s exchange rate policy: the case against abandoning the dollar peg," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0105, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/eaerg/dp/0105.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, August.
    2. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the renminbi," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 16-21, October.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 1997. "Why is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Economic Issues 1997/005, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    7. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
    8. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "Monetary Policy in a World of Mobile Capital," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 25(1), pages 1-12, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Mele, 2019. "On the Chinese's Exchange Rate Regime: A Different Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7.
    2. Xu, Hai Yan & Ward, Bert D. & Nartea, Gilbert V., 2007. "An Empirical Study of the Chinese Short-Term Interest Rate: A Comparison of the Predictive Power of Rival One-Factor Models," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 3(1-2), pages 1-18.
    3. Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," MPRA Paper 32642, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laurenceson, J. & Qin, F., 2005. "China's Exchange Rate Policy : The Case Against Abandoning the Dollar PEG," Discussion Paper 2005-70, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Laurenceson, J. & Qin, F., 2005. "China's Exchange Rate Policy : The Case Against Abandoning the Dollar PEG," Other publications TiSEM ef2e48fd-d699-44e8-afb3-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2013. "Reassessing the link between the Japanese yen and emerging Asian currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-326.
    4. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2012. "A monetary model of China–US trade relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-238.
    5. Xu, Yingfeng, 2008. "Lessons from Taiwan's experience of currency appreciation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 53-65, March.
    6. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista & Raul V. Fabella, 2006. "What Type of Monetary and Exchange Rate Cooperation do China’s Asian Neighbors Want from China?," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 200604, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    7. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    8. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & McDonald, Judy & Hwang, Young-Soon, 2012. "Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 221-232.
    9. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, "undated". "China�s Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: A Tale of Apples and Pirates," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0805, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    11. Simrit Kaur & Aditya Vikram, 2013. "Economic impact of trade openness and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing Asia," International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 341-370.
    12. Schnabl, Gunther, 2005. "International capital markets and exchange rate stabilization in the CIS," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 425-440, September.
    13. Sheng, Andrew & Kwek, Kian-Teng & Cho, Cho-Wai, 2009. "A tale of Asian exchange rate management: Romance of the three currencies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-535, September.
    14. Zhibai Zhang & Xinyue Zou, 2013. "The Ratio Model and its Application: A Revisit," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-4.
    15. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 427-440.
    16. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    17. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    18. XU, Yingfeng, 2009. "Relevant international experience of real exchange rate adjustment for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 440-451, September.
    19. Yan, Isabel K. & Kakkar, Vikas, 2010. "The equilibrium real exchange rate of China: a productivity approach," MPRA Paper 35229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Scott Rozelle & Yiran Xia & Dimitris Friesen & Bronson Vanderjack & Nourya Cohen, 2020. "Moving Beyond Lewis: Employment and Wage Trends in China’s High- and Low-Skilled Industries and the Emergence of an Era of Polarization," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 555-589, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SOE IT (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.