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Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices

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  • Granville, Brigitte
  • Mallick, Sushanta
  • Zeng, Ning

Abstract

This paper explores the degree of price and exchange rate interdependence between China and the G3 (US, Japan and the Euro-zone) by undertaking a VAR based shock analysis. A GARCH framework is also employed to derive the conditional variances to uncover the extent of volatility transmission. We address two key issues. First as there have been concerns about low value-added cheap Chinese goods flooding G3 markets, we attempt to measure the impact of Chinese prices on G3 import prices. Second, we focus on the transmission of exchange rate shocks – a subject which we approach by examining shocks in China's bilateral exchange rate with each of these major trading partners (the US, Japan and the Euro Area). Our results indicate that reduced import prices from China are the channel through which aggregate domestic prices in the G3 remain depressed, while the impact of the RMB exchange rate with G3 currencies appears less powerful. This finding implies that the Chinese authorities’ RMB exchange rate policy is relatively unimportant and, in particular, that a revaluation of the RMB would not do much to reduce the US trade deficit. In terms of volatility spillover, the relatively flexible RMB exchange rate against the Euro results in RMB-EUR volatility having a stronger influence than the more tightly controlled RMB-USD rate on the volatility of Chinese export prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 427-440.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:6:p:427-440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2011.07.002
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    7. Bataa, Erdenebat & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2018. "China's increasing global influence: Changes in international growth linkages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 194-206.
    8. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," CAMA Working Papers 2016-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    11. Loredana Jitaru & Lorena Florentina Dumitrașciuc, 2019. "The Influence of the Depreciation of China's Domestic Currency on Trade Relations with the EU," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 33-38, August.
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    13. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price transmission; Exchange rate adjustment; SVAR; VEGARCH; China; G3;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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