IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v81y2018icp185-202.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Margins of imports, forward-looking firms, and exchange rate movements

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Haichao
  • Li, Yao Amber
  • Zhao, Chen Carol

Abstract

This paper presents theory and evidence on firms’ import responses to current and future exchange rates along both intensive and extensive margins. The paper first builds a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model to study how firms adjust their import decision by taking into account both current and future exchange rates. In the model, individual firms pay a fixed sunk cost and face a probability of failure when searching for foreign intermediate suppliers. The impact of future exchange rate on import is different from that of current exchange rate: spot exchange rate appreciation would increase both the intensive margin (import value of individual firm) and the extensive margin (the number of importing firms), while future exchange rate appreciation increases the extensive margin rather than the intensive margin of imports. The model predictions are strongly supported by an empirical analysis using disaggregated data on China’s imports from the United States and forward rates between US Dollar (USD) and Chinese Yuan (CNY) on the non-deliverable exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Haichao & Li, Yao Amber & Zhao, Chen Carol, 2018. "Margins of imports, forward-looking firms, and exchange rate movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 185-202.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:185-202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560617302255
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.11.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    3. Dong, Wei, 2012. "The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 237-251.
    4. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
    5. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    6. Fan, Haichao & Lai, Edwin L.-C. & Li, Yao Amber, 2015. "Credit constraints, quality, and export prices: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 390-416.
    7. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    8. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    9. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    10. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    11. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    12. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    13. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    14. Heiwai Tang & Yifan Zhang, 2012. "Exchange Rates and the Margins of Trade: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 58(4), pages 671-702, December.
    15. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, April.
    16. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," NBER Working Papers 17594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Haichao Fan & Yao Amber Li & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2015. "Trade Liberalization, Quality, and Export Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1033-1051, December.
    18. Manova, Kalina & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "How firms export: Processing vs. ordinary trade with financial frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 120-137.
    19. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    20. Audretsch, David B. & Elston, Julie Ann, 2002. "Does firm size matter? Evidence on the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment behavior in Germany," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    21. Yi‐Chiuan Wang & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2015. "Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1651-1671, December.
    22. Andrew Bernard & J Bradford Jensen & Stephen Redding & Peter Schott, 2009. "The Margins of U.S. Trade (Long Version)," Working Papers 09-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    23. Yii Siing Wong & Chong Mun Ho & Brian Dollery, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on import flows: the case of Malaysia and the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2027-2034, December.
    24. Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December.
    25. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    26. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
    27. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    28. Christian Broda & David W. Weinstein, 2004. "Variety Growth and World Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 139-144, May.
    29. Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg & Neiman, Brent, 2012. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008–09," Scholarly Articles 11988099, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    30. Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman, 2014. "Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 793-831, March.
    31. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    32. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    33. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    34. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "The Margins of US Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 487-493, May.
    35. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Brent Neiman, 2012. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 303-328, September.
    36. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. László Halpern & Miklós Koren & Adam Szeidl, 2015. "Imported Inputs and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3660-3703, December.
    38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Phil Garton & Jennifer Chang, 2005. "The Chinese currency: how undervalued and how much does it matter?," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 83-109, December.
    40. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    41. Audretsch, David B. & Elston, Julie Ann, 2002. "Does firm size matter? Evidence on the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment behavior in Germany," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    42. Marazzi, Mario & Sheets, Nathan, 2007. "Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 924-947, October.
    43. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
    44. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    45. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    46. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Li, Hongbin & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2015. "How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? — A firm-level investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 148-161.
    48. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May.
    49. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    50. Fan, Haichao & Gao, Xiang & Xu, Juanyi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2016. "News shock, firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-180.
    51. Yao Amber Li & Chen Carol Zhao, 2016. "Price Adjustment to Exchange Rates and Forward-looking Exporters: Evidence from USA–China Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1023-1049, November.
    52. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the renminbi," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 16-21, October.
    53. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    54. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    55. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Kumar, P. C. & Riddick, Leigh A., 1998. "The impact of cash flows and firm size on investment: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 293-320, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
    2. Francois de Soyres & Erik Frohm & Emily Highkin & Carter Mix, 2021. "Forward Looking Exporters," FEDS Notes 2021-10-06-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao Amber Li & Chen Carol Zhao, 2016. "Price Adjustment to Exchange Rates and Forward-looking Exporters: Evidence from USA–China Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1023-1049, November.
    2. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2016. "Quality, trade, and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 61-80.
    3. Imura, Yuko, 2016. "Endogenous trade participation with price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 14-33.
    4. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    5. Tan, Yong & Zhao, Chen, 2017. "New Exporters and Continuing Exporters under Exchange Rate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 77244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sun, Puyang & Hou, Xinyu & Tan, Yong, 2017. "Export Rivalry and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 83369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kim, Kyungmin, 2021. "Production sharing and exchange rate pass-through," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 817-835.
    8. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    9. José Antonio Rodríguez-López, 2011. "Prices and Exchange Rates: A Theory of Disconnect," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 1135-1177.
    10. Hu, Cui & Parsley, David & Tan, Yong, 2021. "Exchange rate induced export quality upgrading: A firm-level perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 336-348.
    11. Fatum, Rasmus & Liu, Runjuan & Tong, Jiadong & Xu, Jiayun, 2018. "Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? Evidence from 2000 to 2011 Chinese customs data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 16-29.
    12. Fan, Haichao & Gao, Xiang & Li, Yao Amber & Luong, Tuan Anh, 2018. "Trade liberalization and markups: Micro evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-130.
    13. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "Global Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-619, June.
    14. Huang, Xiaobing, 2017. "Exchange rate movements and export market dynamics: Evidence from China," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Gita Gopinath, 2015. "The International Price System," NBER Working Papers 21646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Magne Mogstad & Felix Tintelnot, 2021. "Trade and Domestic Production Networks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 643-668.
    17. Bouvet, Florence & Ma, Alyson C. & Van Assche, Ari, 2017. "Tariff and exchange rate pass-through for Chinese exports: A firm-level analysis across customs regimes," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 87-96.
    18. Salamat Ali, 2017. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Exports: Firm-level Evidence from Pakistan," Discussion Papers 2017-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    19. Michael Devereux & Wei Dong & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share," Staff Working Papers 15-31, Bank of Canada.
    20. Yao Amber Li & Jenny Xu & Carol Zhao Chen, 2015. "Import Response to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Micro-level Investigation," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2015-27, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised May 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Import; Future exchange rate; Extensive margin; Intensive margin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:185-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.