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Beggar Thy Neighbor or Beggar Thy Domestic Firms? Evidence from 2000-2011 Chinese Customs Data

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmas Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Runjuan Liu

    (University of Alberta)

  • Jiadong Tong

    (Nankai University)

  • Jiayun Xu

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

The premise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies and currency wars is that currency depreciations lead to export growth. This premise, however, is far from validated as the existing economic literature largely either fails to find significant trade flow effects of currency fluctuations or finds that these effects are only minor. We revisit the question of whether currency fluctuations are systematically associated with trade flows using rich and unique firm level Chinese customs data on China-US trade over the 2000 to 2011 period that allows us to consider firm involvement in processing trade and firm dynamics in both export and import markets. Our firm-level based estimation of trade elasticities suggest that the China-US trade balance strongly responds to changes in the CNY/USD rate. This finding is particularly pronounced when we distinguish between ordinary and processing firms. Our results thus suggest that the influence of exchange rates on trade flows is stronger than previously thought and add insights to the policy debate on beggar-thy-neighbor policies and currency wars by, at least in principle, validating the underlying premise of such policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmas Fatum & Runjuan Liu & Jiadong Tong & Jiayun Xu, "undated". "Beggar Thy Neighbor or Beggar Thy Domestic Firms? Evidence from 2000-2011 Chinese Customs Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2016_004
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    2. Ochan George, 2024. "Exchange rate volatility and its effects on Uganda’s trade balance (1980–2020)," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem & Chen, Chen & Salike, Nimesh, 2021. "China’s exports in a protectionist world," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Willem THORBECKE & Chen CHEN & Nimesh SALIKE, 2025. "The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports," Discussion papers 25010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Yaying Liu & Jin Chen & Churen Sun, 2022. "Partnership Diplomacy and China’s Exports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Rina Bhattacharya & Pranav Gupta & Xingwei Hu & Peter Pedroni, 2018. "How do Structural Features Affect Corporate Exposures to Macro-financial Shocks in Open Economies?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-10, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Xiaohua Bao & Hailiang Huang & Larry D. Qiu & Xiaozhuo Wang, 2024. "Exchange rate expectations and exports: Firm‐level evidence from China," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 635-661, May.
    8. Pabai Fofanah, 2020. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Evidence from West Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(3), pages 32-52.
    9. Sang-Kee Kim & Young-Han Kim, 2020. "Welfare implications of upstream subsidy in the presence of countervailing duties under limited verifiability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(3), pages 643-663, June.
    10. Bing Lu & Yaqi Wang & Xiaofen Tan, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Heterogeneous Firms and Market Concentration," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 51-75, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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