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How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?


  • Thorbecke Willem

    () (George Mason University and Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry)


The U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in 2005. Many blame these imbalances on the value of the renminbi. This paper investigates how an appreciation of the RMB would affect the U.S. trade balance with China. Johansen MLE and dynamic OLS results indicate that the long run real exchange rate coefficients for nominal exports and imports between China and the U.S. equal approximately unity, implying that the true price elasticities of demand are higher. In addition, many believe that a Chinese revaluation will lead to a generalized appreciation of Asian currencies that could substantially impact China's processed exports. Thus an appreciation of the renminbi would help to rebalance trade between China and the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.6:y:2006:i:3:n:3

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chyi Lin Lee & Ming-Long Lee, 2012. "Do European real estate stocks hedge inflation? Evidence from developed and emerging markets," ERES eres2012_155, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters,in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2014. "The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 5123, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Thorbecke, Willem, 2015. "China–US trade: A global outlier," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-58.
    6. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
    7. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    8. THORBECKE, Willem, 2009. "Can East Asia be an Engine of Growth for the World Economy?," Discussion papers 09006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Fatum, Rasmus & Liu, Runjuan & Tong, Jiadong & Xu, Jiayun, 2015. "Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? evidence from 2000-2011 Chinese customs data," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 257, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Yu, Miaojie, 2009. "Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan and triad trade: A gravity assessment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 655-668, November.
    11. Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Rahman, Mizanur, 2008. "The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China’s Exports Behavior," MPRA Paper 13931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    14. Miaojie Yu, 2010. "Does Appreciation of the RMB Decrease Imports to the U.S. from China?," Trade Working Papers 22040, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Dong Yan & Whalley John, 2011. "Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Willem Thorbecke & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On China'S Labour-Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 398-409, August.
    17. Chyi Lin Lee & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Do European real estate stocks hedge inflation? Evidence from developed and emerging markets," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 178-197, June.
    18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2016. "China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 43-67, February.
    19. Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Robin Pope, 2009. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961 ) and the Remedy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 326-350, February.
    21. Thorbecke, Willem, 2010. "An empirical analysis of ASEAN's labor-intensive exports," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 505-513, December.

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