IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v4y2024i5d10.1007_s43546-024-00646-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate volatility and its effects on Uganda’s trade balance (1980–2020)

Author

Listed:
  • Ochan George

    (Central University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

This research investigates an impact of exchange rate volatility on Uganda’s trade balance. It used macroeconomic variables such as consumer price index (Inflation), real gross domestic product in addition to volatility of exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross capital formation (GCF) to meet the objective of the research. We used a yearly time series data from 1980 to 2020 in the analysis. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) test was used to test for data stationarity whereby the results indicated that some variables were stationary at level while others were stationary after first difference. We used an ARDL bound test to examine the existence of cointegration among the variables and found out that there exist long-run relationships among these variables. An ARDL model was employed and the findings indicated a negative link between volatility of real effective exchange rate and trade balance in the short-run and positive link in the long run proving the existence of J-curve effect. Real GDP, Inflation and Gross capital formation all had a positive impact on trade balance in the long-run while the reverse was true for FDI in the long-run. This research thus suggests that the government of Uganda have to introduce a good structure of hedging facility such as forward markets or organizations in order to protect international trade from facing exchange rate risks during the short-run as well as emphasizing on a stable Uganda shilling’s exchange rates because its movement can affect prices either negatively or positively, hence affecting trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ochan George, 2024. "Exchange rate volatility and its effects on Uganda’s trade balance (1980–2020)," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 1-31, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:4:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s43546-024-00646-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-024-00646-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-024-00646-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-024-00646-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    2. M. Abimbola Oyinlola & Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Olusegun Omisakin, 2010. "Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 3(2), pages 123-141, December.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Bernardin Senadza & Desmond Delali Diaba, 2017. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 20-36, March.
    5. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    6. Marilyne Huchet & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
    7. Peter Wilson, 2001. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 389-413, October.
    8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    9. Fatum, Rasmus & Liu, Runjuan & Tong, Jiadong & Xu, Jiayun, 2018. "Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? Evidence from 2000 to 2011 Chinese customs data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 16-29.
    10. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1996. "Foreign direct investment, trade, and real exchange rate linkages in developing countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 73-100.
    11. Poyesh Bahadori Jahromi & Hojatallah Goudarzi, 2014. "The Study of Co-Integration and Casual Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Insurance Penetration Ratio," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 853-863, July.
    12. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    13. Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
    14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    15. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Poyesh Bahadori Jahromi & Hojatallah Goudarzi, 2014. "The Study of Co-Integration and Casual Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Insurance Penetration Ratio," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 853-863.
    17. Moses H. Lubinga & Barnabas Kiiza, 2013. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Bilateral Trade Flows: Insights from Uganda," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 227-239, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Aboagye Danquah & Emmanuel Mensah & Charles Barnor, 2025. "Optimizing foreign direct investment for sustainable trade balance improvement: the case of a developing economy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and commodity trade between United States and Australia: An asymmetric analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1509-1700, June.
    3. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Harvey Hanafiah, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2016. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Malaysia-Singapore commodity trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PB), pages 211-226.
    7. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 41-65, January.
    9. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Gauhar Rehman Panezai & Salahuddin, 2021. "Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2263-2278, April.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Malaysia–Korea Commodity Trade: Are there Asymmetric Responses to Exchange Rate Changes?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 198-222, June.
    12. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    13. Unggul Heriqbaldi & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Rossanto Dwi Handoyo & Alfira Cahyaning Rifami & Hilda Rohmawati, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows in Indonesia and ten main trade partners: asymmetric effects," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 708-739, October.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi, 2020. "Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the U.S. and Germany: asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-124, February.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "The U.S. Trade Balance with Partners from Developing World: An Asymmetry Analysis of the J-Curve Effect," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 29-44, June.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and commodity trade between U.S. and India: an asymmetry analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 675-695, October.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "Do inpayments and outpayments respond to exchange rate changes asymmetrically: Evidence from Malaysia," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 317-342, August.
    20. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:4:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s43546-024-00646-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.