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China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Risto Herrala

Abstract

We study the renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential − an indicator of the effectiveness of capital controls. It is found that the differential is not shrinking over time and, in fact, appears larger after the global financial crisis than before. That is, capital controls in China are still substantial and effective. In addition to exchange rate changes and volatilities, the RMB covered interest differential is affected by credit market tightness indicators. The marginal explanatory power of these macroeconomic factors, however, is small relative to the autoregressive component and the dummy variables that capture changes in China’s policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2013. "China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 4377, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4377
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. China's Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate Regime
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-08-28 17:12:18

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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    2. repec:cuf:journl:y:2018:v:19:i:1:magud:reinhart:rogoff is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2014. "The Role of Offshore Financial Centers in the Process of Renminbi Internationalization," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24049, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. David Leung & John Fu, 2014. "Interactions between CNY and CNH Money and Forward Exchange Markets," Working Papers 132014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Liu, Tao, 2014. "The onshore-offshore interaction of RMB market: a high-frequency analysis," MPRA Paper 63905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:bla:chinae:v:24:y:2016:i:6:p:19-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ho, Chun-Yu & Ho, Wai-Yip Alex & Li, Dan, 2015. "Intranational risk sharing and its determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-113.
    8. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2016. "China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-112.
    10. Zhitao Lin & Wenjie Zhan & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2016. "China's Bilateral Currency Swap Lines," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(6), pages 19-42, November.
    11. Tao Cai & Vinh Q. T. Dang & Jennifer T. Lai, 2016. "China's Capital and ‘Hot’ Money Flows: An Empirical Investigation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 276-294, August.
    12. George Verikios, 2015. "The implications for trade and FDI flows from liberalisation of China's capital account," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-251, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NDF implied RMB interest rate; capital controls; asymmetric response; macro determinants; credit market tightness;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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