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China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials

  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Risto Herrala

We study the renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential – an indicator of the effectiveness of capital controls. It is found that the differential is not shrinking over time and, in fact, appears larger after the global financial crisis than before. That is, capital controls in China are still substantial and effective. In addition to exchange rate changes and volatilities, the RMB covered interest differential is affected by credit market tightness indicators. The marginal explanatory power of these macroeconomic factors, however, is small relative to the autoregressive component and the dummy variables that capture changes in China’s policy.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4377.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4377
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  1. Chinn,M.D. & Ito,H., 2005. "What matters for financial development? : capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Working papers 4, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," NBER Working Papers 10047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "The financial trilemma in China and a comparative analysis with India," MPRA Paper 39798, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jul 2012.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, 02.
  11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 2931, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, 05.
  13. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
  15. Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
  16. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-59, Nov.-Dec..
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