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China's Capital Flight: Pre- and Post-Crisis Experiences

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    () (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Sven Steinkamp

    () (Universitaet Osnabrueck)

  • Frank Westermann

    () (Universitaet Osnabrueck)

Abstract

We study China’s illicit capital flow and document a change in its pattern. Specifically, we observe that China’s capital flight, especially the one measured by trade misinvoicing, exhibits a weakened response in the post-2007 period to the covered interest disparity, which is a theoretical determinant of capital flight. Further analyses indicate that the post-2007 behavior is influenced by quantitative easing and other factors including exchange rate variability, capital control policy and trade frictions. Our study confirms that China’s capital flight pattern and its determinants are affected by the crisis event. Further, both the canonical and additional explanatory variables have different effects on different measures of capital flight. These results highlight the challenges of managing China’s capital flight, which requires information on the period and the type of capital flight that the policy authorities would like to target.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2015. "China's Capital Flight: Pre- and Post-Crisis Experiences," IEER Working Papers 103, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 16 Dec 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0103
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2017. "The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism after August 2015: A Statistical Analysis," Working Papers 062017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Ning, Ye & Zhang, Lingxiang, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of short-term international capital flows in China: A Markov regime switching approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 193-203.
    4. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    5. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Hinrich Voss & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Ping Zheng, 2018. "A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(1), pages 4-23, January.
    6. Thales Pacific Yapatake Kossele & Mom Aloysius Njong, 2020. "Capital flight and diamond exports in the Central African Republic: The role of political governance crisis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 362-374, September.
    7. Hasnul, Al Gifari & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Role of instability in affecting capital flight magnitude: An ARDL bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 72086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Anna Wong, 2017. "China’s Current Account : External Rebalancing or Capital Flight?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Subhasish Das & Amit K. Biswas, 2021. "Trade Mis-Invoicing Between India & USA: An Empirical Exercise," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 7-30, February.
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Kai-Hua Wang & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao, 2019. "Does the Mundell-Fleming model fit in China?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 11-28.
    13. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    14. Sarah Chan, 2017. "Assessing China’s recent capital outflows: policy challenges and implications," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Yin-Wong CheungAuthor-Workplace-Name: City University of Hong Kong & Matthew S. Yiu, 2016. "Offshore Renminbi Trading: Findings from the 2013 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey," Working Papers 142016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Bank Residual Method; Trade Misinvoicing; Quantitative Easing; Capital Controls; Covered Interest Disparity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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