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Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?

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  • Oliver D. Babson
  • John G. Fernald

Abstract

China's strong growth in the midst of the Asian crisis is striking. We explore features of China's financial system that helped insulate it from the crisis, and then try to assess whether China has avoided crisis or simply deferred it. We argue that regardless of whether the Asian crisis resulted from weak fundamentals or from \"country runs\" by investors, it is not surprising that China has survived so far. In a market-oriented system, pressures generally force rapid adjustment when institutions are, or are perceived to be, insolvent; these mechanisms do not operate fully in China. In addition, China's external accounts remain strong. Even in the absence of capital controls, the strength of these external fundamentals would plausibly preclude a self-fulfilling \"country run\" on China. Whatever their other effects, capital controls may have played a role in preventing Chinese financial institutions from borrowing excessively abroad, and hence may have helped keep China's external fundamentals strong. Clear risks remain for China's outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver D. Babson & John G. Fernald, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:633
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonin, John P. & Huang, Yiping, 2001. "Dealing with the bad loans of the Chinese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-214.
    2. Vincent Bouvatier, 2010. "Hot money inflows and monetary stability in China: how the People's Bank of China took up the challenge," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1533-1548.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2016. "China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-112.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu, 2017. "Effects of capital flow on the equity and housing markets in Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 332-349, August.
    5. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Post-Print halshs-00111153, HAL.
    6. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    7. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008. "China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, February.
    8. Lee Kam Hing & Cheong Kee Cheok & Lee Poh Ping, 2013. "Robert Kuok: Family, Dialect, and State in the Making of a Malaysian Magnate," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 268-291, November.
    9. Françoise Lemoine, 2000. "FDI and the Opening Up of China's Economy," Working Papers 2000-11, CEPII research center.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    11. Françoise Lemoine, 1999. "Les délocalisations au cœur de l'expansion du commerce extérieur chinois," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 326(1), pages 53-70.
    12. Carsten Hefeker & Andreas Nabor, 2005. "China's role in East-Asian monetary integration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 157-166.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    14. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 2001. "Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q IV), pages 38-52.
    15. Barbara Stallings, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Crisis, and Rescue: Lessons for China from Latin America and East Asia?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 48078, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Plasmans, J.E.J., 2001. "Currency Crises and Economic Monetary Cooperation : An Application to South East Asia and Comparison with Mexico, Brazil and Europe," Other publications TiSEM d740e32a-4dff-44ad-ae39-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Wink Joosten, 2004. "The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?," CPB Memorandum 87, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Francois Gurtner, 1999. "The stability of the Renminbi in the wake of the Asian financial crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 34(3), pages 135-143, May.
    19. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    20. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    21. Wink Joosten, 2004. "The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?," CPB Memorandum 87.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    22. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Zhang, Jing & Pezeshkan, Amir, 2016. "Host country network, industry experience, and international alliance formation: Evidence from the venture capital industry," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 264-277.

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