IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/soa/wpaper/139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe

Author

Listed:
  • Takuji Kinkyo

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

Abstract

The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe," Working Papers 139, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.soas.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-10/economics-wp139.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2001. "The morning after: explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 241-259, April.
    4. Stiglitz,Joseph & Greenwald,Bruce, 2003. "Towards a New Paradigm in Monetary Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521810340, January.
    5. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "Disorderly adjustments to exchange rate misalignments: The experience of Korea," Working Papers 140, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    6. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386768, December.
    7. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    9. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    10. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia," Working Papers 141, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    16. Wei Ding & Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "Is there a credit crunch in East Asia?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1959, The World Bank.
    17. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Swart R. Ghosh, 1999. "East Asia in the Aftermath: Was there a Crunch?," IMF Working Papers 1999/038, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 73-99, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, October.
    21. Joon-Ho Hahm & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Causes of the Korean Financial Crisis: Lessons for Policy," NBER Working Papers 7483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Republic of Korea: Economic and Policy Developments," IMF Staff Country Reports 2000/011, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    25. Morris Goldstein, 2002. "Managed Floating Plus," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa66, October.
    26. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1, March.
    27. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Mr. P. Bernd Spahn, 1995. "International Financial Flows and Transactions Taxes: Survey and Options," IMF Working Papers 1995/060, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    30. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Republic of Korea: Article IV for 2000 Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2000/010, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Machiko Nissanke, 2003. "Revenue Potential of the Currency Transaction Tax for Development Finance: A Critical Appraisal," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-81, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    32. Dollar, David & Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, 2000. "Crisis, Adjustment, and Reform in Thailand's Industrial Firms," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Ignacio Lozano Espitia & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos, 2016. "La política fiscal frente a los flujos de capital: evidencia para algunos países de América Latina," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(62), pages 53-85, July.
    2. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "Disorderly adjustments to exchange rate misalignments: The experience of Korea," Working Papers 140, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    3. Lozano-Espitia, Luis Ignacio & Melo-Becerra, Ligia Alba & Ramos-Forero, Jorge Enrique, 2013. "Flujos de capitales y política fiscal en las economías emergentes de América Latina," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 13, pages 533-563, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia," Working Papers 141, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "Disorderly adjustments to exchange rate misalignments: The experience of Korea," Working Papers 140, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    2. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia," Working Papers 141, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    5. Plasmans, J.E.J., 2001. "Currency Crises and Economic Monetary Cooperation : An Application to South East Asia and Comparison with Mexico, Brazil and Europe," Other publications TiSEM d740e32a-4dff-44ad-ae39-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Schmidt Paul-Günther, 2001. "Ursachen systemischer Bankenkrisen: Erklärungsversuche, empirische Evidenz und wirtschaftspolitische Konsequenzen," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 52(1), pages 239-280, January.
    7. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    11. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
    12. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    13. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "The Effect of the Asian Financial Crisis on the Performance of Korean Nationwide Banks," Working papers 2002-32, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    14. Chul Park, Yung & Song, Chi-Young, 2001. "Institutional Investors, Trade Linkage, Macroeconomic Similarities, and Contagion of the Thai Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-224, June.
    15. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    16. Thomas D. Willett & Ekniti Nitithanprapas & Isriya Nitithanprapas & Sunil Rongala, 2004. "The Asian Crises Reexamined," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 32-87.
    17. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
    18. Morris Goldstein & Timothy F. Geithner & Paul Keating & Yung Chul Park, 2003. "IMF Structural Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 363-458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Yongil Jeon & Stephen Miller, 2005. "Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 145-165.
    20. J. Bradford Delong, 1999. "Financial Crises in the 1890s and the 1990s: Must History Repeat," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 253-294.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flow shocks; Current account adjustments; VAR; Crisis; Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chandni Dwarkasing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desoauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.