IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v30y2022i1p205-236.html

Capital controls and the volatility of the renminbi covered interest deviation

Author

Listed:
  • Zhitao Lin
  • Jinzhao Chen
  • Xingwang Qian

Abstract

This paper examines how capital controls affect the volatility of the renminbi (RMB) covered interest deviation (CID). We find that capital controls amplify the volatility of RMB CID and the amplification effect becomes more prominent in more flexible RMB exchange regimes. Capital controls influence the volatility of interest rate differential (IRD) and forward premium (FP), two components of CID, differently, particularly during the U.S. Fed's QE era. In addition, using an error correction model, we show that, while capital controls magnify both the short‐ and long‐run volatility of the CID and the IRD, they do not affect FP volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhitao Lin & Jinzhao Chen & Xingwang Qian, 2022. "Capital controls and the volatility of the renminbi covered interest deviation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 205-236, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:30:y:2022:i:1:p:205-236
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12563
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.12563?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2014. "Dilemma Not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 569-605, November.
    2. Takatoshi Ito, 1983. "Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, February.
    4. Anton Korinek & Damiano Sandri, 2016. "Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2017. "Capital controls as shock absorbers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 43-67.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    10. Jonathan D. Ostry, 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    12. Hélène Rey, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," NBER Working Papers 21162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    14. Martin S. Feldstein, 1999. "Introduction: International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Tsang, Andrew, 2018. "The RMB central parity formation mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 223-243.
    17. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    18. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    19. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Marcos Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/004, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    21. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    22. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.
    24. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew, 2014. "Capital Controls in the 21st Century," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 1-16.
    25. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    26. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 80-95.
    27. Chang, Chun & Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-15.
    28. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
    29. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    30. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Dilemma not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," Working Paper 133566, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    31. Edwards, Sebastian & Rigobon, Roberto, 2009. "Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 256-267, July.
    32. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2017. "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 114-130.
    33. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    34. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
    35. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas Lardy, 2017. "China’s Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 20, pages 667-675, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    36. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    37. M. Frenkel & G. Shimidt & G. Stadtmann & Nickle Christiane, 2002. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 27-51.
    38. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2018. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 176-204.
    39. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    2. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    3. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    4. Panigrahi, Biswajit & Prabheesh, K.P., 2025. "Understanding capital controls measurement: Need, classification, and suitability," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Wang, Jian & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Is capital flow management effective? Evidence based on U.S. monetary policy shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Sudden Stops," Working Papers 1712, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    7. Binici, Mahir & Das, Mitali, 2021. "Recalibration of capital controls: Evidence from the IMF taxonomy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    9. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    10. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Chokri Zehri, 2022. "Interaction Effect of Capital Controls and Macroeconomic Policies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(1), pages 15-33, March.
    12. Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Regulating capital flows to emerging markets: An externality view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 61-80.
    13. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Johnson, Christopher P., 2021. "International shadow banking and prudential capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Lorena Keller, 2018. "Prudential Capital Controls and Risk Misallocation: Bank Lending Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global liquidity and capital flow regulations," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 52-72, March.
    17. Nataliia Osina, 0. "Global liquidity and capital flow regulations," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-21.
    18. Johannes Matschke, 2021. "Macroprudential Policy Interlinkages," Research Working Paper RWP 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    19. Lovchikova, Marina & Matschke, Johannes, 2024. "Capital controls and the global financial cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    20. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2017. "Capital controls as shock absorbers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 43-67.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:30:y:2022:i:1:p:205-236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.