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Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability

  • Edwards, Sebastian
  • Rigobon, Roberto

We use high frequency data and a new econometric approach to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s, and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which different macro variables relate to each other. In particular, we consider the case where controls co-exist with an exchange rate band aimed at managing the nominal exchange rate. We develop a methodology to deal explicitly with the interaction between these two policies. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) a tightening of capital controls on inflows depreciates the exchange rate and (b), we find that a tightening of capital controls increases the unconditional volatility of the exchange rate, but makes it less sensitive to external shocks.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 78 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 256-267

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:78:y:2009:i:2:p:256-267
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2007. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 171-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
  4. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  8. Francisco Gallego & Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Capital Controls in Chile: Were They Effective?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 361-412 Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Kristin J. Forbes, 2003. "One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smalles Traded Firms," NBER Working Papers 9777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Paul Krugman, 2000. "Currency Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug00-1, August.
    • Paul R. Krugman & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Stanley Fischer & William J. McDonough, 1999. "Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 421-466 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
  15. Eichengreen, Barry, 2000. "Taming Capital Flows," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1105-1116, June.
  16. Bernard Laurens & Jaime Cardoso, 1998. "Managing Capital Flows; Lessons From the Experience of Chile," IMF Working Papers 98/168, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 2005. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," NBER Working Papers 11382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Edwards, Sebastian (ed.), 2007. "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 0, number 9780226184975.
  19. Jose De Gregorio & Sebastian Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 2000. "Controls on Capital Inflows: Do they Work?," NBER Working Papers 7645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Contagion, Globalization, and the Volatility of Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 15-41 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Michael Ulan, 2000. "Review Essay: Is a Chilean-Style Tax on Short-Term Capital Inflows Stabilizing?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 149-177, April.
  23. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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