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Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Volatility and External Vulnerability

Author

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  • Sebastian Edwards
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

We use high frequency data and a new econometric methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which different macro variables relate to each other. We take this problem seriously, and we develop a methodology to deal explicitly with it. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) A tightening of capital controls on inflows depreciates the exchange rate. (b) We find that the "vulnerability" of the nominal exchange rate to external factors decreases with a tightening of the capital controls. And (c), we find that a tightening of capital controls increases the unconditional volatility of the exchange rate, but makes this volatility less sensitive to external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Volatility and External Vulnerability," NBER Working Papers 11434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Edwards, Sebastian & Edwards, Alejandra Cox, 1991. "Monetarism and Liberalization," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226184890, July.
    3. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
    7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
    8. Forbes, Kristin J., 2007. "One cost of the Chilean capital controls: Increased financial constraints for smaller traded firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 294-323, April.
    9. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    10. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 1996. "Exchange rate policies and capital account management: Chile in the 1990s," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 465-488.
    11. Bernard J Laurens & Jaime Cardoso, 1998. "Managing Capital Flows; Lessons From the Experience of Chile," IMF Working Papers 98/168, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Peter B. Kenen, 2001. "International Financial Architecture: What's New? What's Missing?, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 335.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Noy, Ilan & Vu, Tam B., 2007. "Capital account liberalization and foreign direct investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 175-194, August.
    3. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 428, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1669-1690, December.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Colombia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/24, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Rethinking the Economics of Capital Mobilityand Capital Controls," IMK Working Paper 01-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    9. Franklin Huaita & Manuel Agosín Trumper, 2007. "Why Should Emerging-Market Countries (Still) Concern Themselves With Capital Inflows?," Working Papers wp268, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    10. repec:cuf:journl:y:2018:v:19:i:1:magud:reinhart:rogoff is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Benedict J. Clements & Herman Kamil, 2009. "Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? the Recent Experience of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 09/30, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Fatma Marrakchi Charfi, 2013. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: What Is the Scope of Liberalization for Tunisia?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 515-540, June.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen, 2006. "What is next for financial globalization: Some perspective gained from the experience of capital flows to emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 13400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Melecky, Martin, 2008. "An alternative framework for foreign exchange risk management of sovereign debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4458, The World Bank.
    15. Concha, Alvaro & Galindo, Arturo José & Vasquez, Diego, 2011. "An assessment of another decade of capital controls in Colombia: 1998–2008," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 319-338.
    16. Vanessa Da Costa Val Munhoz & Gilberto Libânio, 2011. "Revisitando Os Controles De Capitais:Notas Teóricas E Evidências Empíricas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 202, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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