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Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

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Listed author(s):
  • Shigeru Iwata

    ()

    (Department of Economics University of Kansas)

  • Evan Tanner

    ()

    (International Monetary Fund / IMF Institute)

Abstract

The authors characterize a country’s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange rate regime.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2007)
Issue (Month): 7-8 (September)
Pages: 363-381

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:7-8:p:363-381
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Keywords: exchange rate regime; capital account; structural vector autoregression;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
  • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  1. By May Khamis & Alfredo M. Leone, 2001. "Can Currency Demand Be Stable Under a Financial Crisis? The Case of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 1-6.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
  4. Eric Parrado & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Optimal Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  11. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-467, May/June.
  12. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
  13. Kenneth Kletzer & Mark Spiegel, 1996. "Speculative capital inflows and exchange rate targeting in the Pacific Basin," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
  15. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
  16. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. Murat Tasdemir & Abdullah Yalama, 2010. "Inter-Regional Volatility Spillovers Between Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence From Turkey And Brazil," Working Papers 2010/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Jan 2010.
  2. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  4. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2004. "Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Regime, and Macroeconomic Performance in Mexico," WIDER Working Paper Series 027, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Alex Luiz FERREIRA, "undated". "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," EcoMod2004 330600051, EcoMod.
  6. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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