IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating

  • Javier Gómez Pineda

    ()

Sudden stops seem to create the perfect environment for disinflation, especially when central banks defend the exchange rate by increasing interest rates. We propose a variation of the output gap model that incorporates the sudden stop shock. The use of the model in policy analysis shows that fear of floating is pro-cyclical and inflation targeting, counter-cyclical. The model is run for Brazil, Colombia, Korea and Thailand, the inflation targeting countries that have recently had sudden stops. The three policy implications direct attention to the medium and long run. First,the central banks that are targeting inflation should focus on inflation, not during but after the sudden stop. Second, they could complement this medium term view by monitoring a measure of inflation of non traded goods. Third, the monetary authorities could eventually introduce an escape clause to the CPI inflation target under a sharp depreciation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra276.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 276.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:276
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Cra 7 # 14-78 Semi-sótano

Phone: (57-1) 3431111
Fax: (57-1) 2841686
Web page: http://www.banrep.gov.co/es/publicaciones-buscador/23
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2002. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers veintiuno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  2. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  3. McCallum, B.T. & Nelson, E., 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Papers 644, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Shigeru Iwata & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(7-8), pages 363-381, September.
  5. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2005. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 256-275, June.
  6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fiorella De Fiore, 1998. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Israel," IMF Working Papers 98/114, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2002. "Time-varying risk premia and the cost of capital: An alternative implication of the Q theory of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-66, January.
  12. Timothy D. Lane & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Tsidi M Tsikata & Steven T Phillips & Atish R. Ghosh & A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand," IMF Occasional Papers 178, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
  15. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  16. Paulo Springer de Freitas & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "A Simple Model for Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 18, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
  18. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "IS-LM-BP in the Pampas," NBER Working Papers 9337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A., 2013. "Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 68-93.
  23. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  24. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar S Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III; The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, . "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  27. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 9599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
  29. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2001. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Ales Bulir & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Atish R. Ghosh & Alex Mourmouras & A. Javier Hamann & Timothy D. Lane, 2002. "IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises; Design and Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 210, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
  32. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  33. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.