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Common shocks and currency crises

  • Ramon Moreno
  • Bharat Trehan

This paper attempts to determine the extent to which common external shocks explain simultaneous currency crises. We define crises on a country by country basis using a new criterion that takes into account variations in the volatility of exchange rates over time and across countries. Using a Poisson regression model, we find that over the post-Bretton woods period, a small number of common external shocks can explain between sixty to eighty percent of the variation in the total number of crises over time, depending upon the set of countries one looks at. Our findings provide one explanation of why currency crises sometimes bunch together and sometimes do not.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2000-05.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2000-05
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5718, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank.
  3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  6. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
  9. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 1999. "Interest rate stabilization of exchange rates and contagion in the Asian crisis countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  10. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis; Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 98/89, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1996. "Inflows of capital to developing countries in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 1998. "Capital inflows, external shocks, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 713-740, October.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1997. "The size and timing of devaluations in capital-controlled economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 123-147, October.
  18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Balassa, Bela, 1986. "Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 75-78, May.
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