IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v34y2010i5p1098-1107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Fong, Wai-Ming
  • Valente, Giorgio
  • Fung, Joseph K.W.

Abstract

We study the profitability of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick-by-tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy. The empirical analysis shows that positive CIP arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk. Once these risk premia are taken into account, small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs. The results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:1098-1107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(09)00305-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    2. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-1151, September.
    5. Rhee, S Ghon & Chang, Rosita P, 1992. "Intra-day Arbitrage Opportunities in Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 363-379, March.
    6. Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-Quality Data Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(216), pages 429-438, November.
    7. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 361-376, December.
    8. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2009. "Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1741-1754, October.
    9. Richard Roll & Eduardo Schwartz & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2007. "Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures‐Cash Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2201-2234, October.
    10. Darvas, Zsolt, 2009. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 944-957, May.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    12. Harold Demsetz, 1968. "The Cost of Transacting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(1), pages 33-53.
    13. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    14. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
    15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. Deardorff, Alan V, 1979. "One-Way Arbitrage and Its Implications for the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 351-364, April.
    17. Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559.
    18. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
    19. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-1226, December.
    20. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1994. "Information and Index Arbitrage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 481-509, October.
    21. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the federal reserve’s responses to the crisis," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(4), pages 335-348, December.
    23. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    24. Jokivuolle, Esa, 1995. "Measuring True Stock Index Value in the Presence of Infrequent Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 455-464, September.
    25. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    26. Kotomin, Vladimir & Smith, Stanley D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Preferred habitat for liquidity in international short-term interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 240-250, February.
    27. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    28. Johnson, Timothy C., 2008. "Volume, liquidity, and liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 388-417, February.
    29. David Carse, 2001. "The banking industry: competition, consolidation and systemic stability: the Hong Kong experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The banking industry in the emerging market economies: competition, consolidation and systemic stability, volume 4, pages 71-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wai-Ming Fong & Giorgio Valente & Joseph K.W. Fung, 2008. "FX Arbitrage and Market Liquidity: Statistical Significance and Economic Value," Working Papers 082008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    4. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Young Ju, 2016. "Covered interest parity and arbitrage paradox in emerging markets: Evidence from the Korean market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 161-176.
    5. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
    6. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2009. "Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1741-1754, October.
    7. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Moinas, Sophie & Nguyen, Minh & Valente, Giorgio, 2017. "Funding Constraints and Market Illiquidity in the European Treasury Bond Market," TSE Working Papers 17-814, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    10. Ted Juhl & William Miles & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then vs. Now," NBER Working Papers 10961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "Risk-adjusted Covered Interest Parity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 162016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Lee, Jieun & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "How does FX liquidity affect the relationship between foreign ownership and stock liquidity?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-119.
    13. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "How do housing purchase limits affect firm default risks in Mainland China?," Working Papers 172016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    16. Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Huizinga, Harry P. & Lemmen, Jan J. G., 1998. "Short-term and long-term government debt and nonresident interest withholding taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 309-334, June.
    17. Thierry Foucault & Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2017. "Toxic Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1053-1094.
    18. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    19. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    20. Hernández Juan R., 2020. "Covered Interest Parity: A Stochastic Volatility Approach to Estimate the Neutral Band," Working Papers 2020-02, Banco de México.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:1098-1107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.