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Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk

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  • Fong, Wai-Ming
  • Valente, Giorgio
  • Fung, Joseph K.W.

Abstract

We study the profitability of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick-by-tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy. The empirical analysis shows that positive CIP arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk. Once these risk premia are taken into account, small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs. The results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:1098-1107
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    Cited by:

    1. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:554-566 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Covered Interest Parity in the Post GFC Period: Evidence from Australian Dollar and the NZ Dollar," CARF F-Series CARF-F-401, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND-GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 133-150, April.
    5. Hans Jørgen Tranvåg & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper Series 12412, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    6. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2016. "Regional Liquidity Risk and Covered Interest Parity during the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Tokyo, London, and New York ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1017, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Baba, Naohiko & Sakurai, Yuji, 2011. "When and how US dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis? Evidence from the cross-currency swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1450-1463, June.
    8. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2016. "Strong sterling pound and weak European currencies in the crises: Evidence from covered interest parity of secured rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-122.
    9. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2015. "Strong Sterling Pound and Weak European Currencies in the Crises: Evidence from Covered Interest Parity of Secured Rates," NBER Chapters,in: International Finance in the Global Markets National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:3:f:7_3_4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Execution Risk in High-Frequency Arbitrage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2131-2149, November.
    12. John, Pippenger, 2011. "The solution to the forward-bias puzzle: Reply," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 629-636, October.
    13. King, Michael & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Timing exchange rates using order flow: The case of the Loonie," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2917-2928, December.
    14. Murat Duran & Doruk Kucuksarac, 2012. "Are Swap and Bond Markets Alternatives to Each Other in Turkey?," Working Papers 1223, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    15. Yang, Hsin-Feng & Liu, Chih-Liang & Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2014. "Interest rate risk propagation: Evidence from the credit crunch," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 242-264.
    16. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:301-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Chiu, Junmao & Chung, Huimin & Ho, Keng-Yu & Wang, George H.K., 2012. "Funding liquidity and equity liquidity in the subprime crisis period: Evidence from the ETF market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2660-2671.
    18. Silviu Eduard Dinca, 2013. "Unwinding RON carry-trade or RON speculative attack?," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(15), pages 193-205, December.
    19. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Covered Interest Parity in the Post GFC Period: Evidence from the Australian Dollar and the NZ Dollar," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1032, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    20. Pippenger, John, 2012. "What Covered Interest Parity Implies about the Theory of Uncovered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt0zk6t2hj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    21. Juan R. Hernández, 2014. "Peso-Dollar Forward Market Analysis: Explaining Arbitrage Opportunities during the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2014-09, Banco de México.

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