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Leveraged carry trade portfolios

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  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

Studying all possible pairs of eleven major currencies and eleven portfolios in 1976-2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity. We explain these findings with the leveraged nature of carry trade: leverage may increase profitability but it materially increases downside risk. We argue that market inefficiency is related to the level of leverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Working Papers 0802, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 18 Jun 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0802
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bootstrap; currency market; diversification; interest rate differential; leverage; uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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