IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Are Southeast Asian Real Exchange Rates Mean Reverting?

  • Frédérique Bec
  • Songlin Zeng

    ()

    (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise
    THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

Since the late nineties, both theoretical and empirical analysis devoted to the real exchange rate suggest that their dynamics might be well approximated by nonlinear models. This paper examines this possibility for post-1970 monthly ASEAN-5 data, extending the existing research in two directions. First, we use recently developed unit root tests which allow for more flexible nonlinear stationary models under the alternative than the commonly used Self-Exciting Threshold or Exponantial Smooth Transition AutoRegressions. Second, while different nonlinear models survive the mis-specification tests, a Monte Carlo experiment from generalized impulse response functions is used to compare their relative relevance. Our results i) support the nonlinear mean-reverting hypothesis, and hence the Purchasing Power Parity, in most of the ASEAN-5 countries and ii) point to the Multiple Regime-Logistic Smooth Transition and the Exponantial Smooth Transition AutoRegression models as the most likely data generating processes of these real exchange rates.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/documents/2012-25.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2012-25.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2012-25
Contact details of provider: Postal:
33, boulevard du port - 95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex

Phone: 33 1 34 25 60 63
Fax: 33 1 34 25 62 33
Web page: http://thema.u-cergy.fr
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lo Ming Chien, 2008. "Nonlinear PPP Deviations: A Monte Carlo Investigation of Their Unconditional Half-Life," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-31, December.
  2. Zurbruegg, R. & Allsopp, L., 2004. "Purchasing power parity and the impact of the East Asian currency crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 739-758, August.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  5. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," Post-Print hal-00685810, HAL.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December.
  8. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  9. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2005. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 05010, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  10. repec:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:99-100 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  12. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Chen, Show-Lin, 2004. "Are real exchange rates non-stationary? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 425-438, April.
  13. Bec, Frederique & Guay, Alain & Guerre, Emmanuel, 2008. "Adaptive consistent unit-root tests based on autoregressive threshold model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 94-133, January.
  14. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  15. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
  16. Venus Khim-sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Terence Tai-leung Chong, 2003. "Are Asian Real Exchange Rates Stationary?," International Finance 0307002, EconWPA, revised 01 Nov 2004.
  17. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  18. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2005. "The Autoregressive Conditional Root (ACR) Model," Working Papers 2005-26, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  19. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  20. Dirk Te Velde, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 178, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  21. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. repec:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:99-100:p:16 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  24. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hong-Kee & Oh, Keun-Yeob, 2009. "The purchasing power parity of Southeast Asian currencies: A time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 96-106, January.
  25. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  26. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  27. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
  28. Doo-Yull Choi & Bong-Han Kim & See-Won Kim, 2011. "Nonlinear mean-reversion in Southeast Asian real exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1409-1421.
  29. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2012-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stefania Marcassa)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.