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Are Southeast Asian Real Exchange Rates Mean Reverting?

Listed author(s):
  • Frédérique Bec
  • Songlin Zeng

    ()

    (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise
    THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

Since the late nineties, both theoretical and empirical analysis devoted to the real exchange rate suggest that their dynamics might be well approximated by nonlinear models. This paper examines this possibility for post-1970 monthly ASEAN-5 data, extending the existing research in two directions. First, we use recently developed unit root tests which allow for more flexible nonlinear stationary models under the alternative than the commonly used Self-Exciting Threshold or Exponantial Smooth Transition AutoRegressions. Second, while different nonlinear models survive the mis-specification tests, a Monte Carlo experiment from generalized impulse response functions is used to compare their relative relevance. Our results i) support the nonlinear mean-reverting hypothesis, and hence the Purchasing Power Parity, in most of the ASEAN-5 countries and ii) point to the Multiple Regime-Logistic Smooth Transition and the Exponantial Smooth Transition AutoRegression models as the most likely data generating processes of these real exchange rates.

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File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/documents/2012-25.pdf
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Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2012-25.

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Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2012-25
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  6. Bec, Frederique & Guay, Alain & Guerre, Emmanuel, 2008. "Adaptive consistent unit-root tests based on autoregressive threshold model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 94-133, January.
  7. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime star Model," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 395-427.
  8. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
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  13. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
  14. repec:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:99-100:p:16 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
  16. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  17. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hong-Kee & Oh, Keun-Yeob, 2009. "The purchasing power parity of Southeast Asian currencies: A time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 96-106, January.
  18. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December.
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  21. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  22. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
  23. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
  24. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
  25. Lo Ming Chien, 2008. "Nonlinear PPP Deviations: A Monte Carlo Investigation of Their Unconditional Half-Life," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-31, December.
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  28. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2005. "The Autoregressive Conditional Root (ACR) Model," Working Papers 2005-26, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  29. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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