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Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos



    (*Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales. Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

En este trabajo proporcionamos diversas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española para el período 1976-2000. Así, confrontamos los resultados que se obtienen para la economía española aplicando una batería de métodos directos (métodos basados en la curva de Phillips ampliada) bastante habituales en la literatura internacional de los últimos años. Entre otras cuestiones, prestamos atención a la robustez e imprecisión de estas estimaciones, a la causalidad en esta área y al fenómeno de histéresis en el desempleo. Aparte de encontrar evidencia de causalidad desde las desviaciones del desempleo observado respecto a las NAIRUs estimadas hacia la inflación, y de histéresis en el desempleo, nuestro análisis concluye que es necesario un esfuerzo de investigación adicional en esta área si deseamos seguir aplicando estos métodos a la economía española, por los problemas de falta de robustez y notable imprecisión detectados. In this article different NAIRU estimates for the Spanish economy in the period 1976-2000 are offered. The results obtained from the application of different direct methods (methods based on an extended Phillips curve) frequently used in the international literature in recent years are compared. Among other aspects, we pay attention to the robustness and precision of these estimates, to causality in this area and to the phenomenon of hysteresis in unemployment. Our results show that, although we find evidence of causality from the difference between observed unemployment and the NAIRU estimates to inflation, it is necessary an additional research effort in this area if we wish to continue applying this kind of methods for the Spanish economy, because we have detected problems of lack of robustness and precision. We have also found evidence of hysteresis in unemployment.

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Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 20 (2002)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 509-530

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:20_3_8
Contact details of provider: Postal: Beatriz Rodríguez Prado. Facultad de CC.EE. y EE. Avda. Valle del Esgueva. Valladolid 47011 SPAIN
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  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 136, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
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  8. Setterfield, M.A. & Gordon, D.V. & Osberg, L., 1990. "Searching For A Will O'The Wisp: An Empirical Study Of The Nairu In Canada," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 90-04, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  9. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  10. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gómez García, F. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 1999. "La relación inflación-desempleo en la economía española (1964-98): Una interpretación," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 13, pages 65-86, Diciembre.
  12. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May.
  13. Dupasquier, Chantal & Ricketts, Nicholas, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
  14. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
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  17. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  18. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
  19. Bellod Redondo, José Francisco, 1999. "Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(264), pages 663-692, octubre-d.
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