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MASCOTTE: Model for AnalySing and foreCasting shOrT TErm developments

  • Baghli, M.
  • Brunhes-Lesage, V.
  • De bandt, O.
  • Fraisse, H.
  • Villetelle, J-P.

MASCOTTE is the new version of the Banque de France's macro-econometric forecasting model. Following the last rebasing of National Accounts (currently at 1995 price), the previous version of the model was simplified, re-specified and re-estimated. The model is essentially used for making macro-economic projections of the French economy over a two-to-three year horizon, which requires an accounting framework as close as possible to the French National Accounts. The main agents are companies, households, general government and the rest of the world. The new version now includes a supply block derived from the explicit optimisation behaviour of companies using a Cobb-Douglas technology under imperfect competition, and a new Wage Setting schedule. Full homogeneity of the nominal side of the model ensures the independence between the nominal equilibrium and the real equilibrium, the latter being only determined in the long run by relative prices. Furthermore, as regards the specification of equations, special attention was paid to the consequences of changes in short-term interest rates.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 106.

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Length: 123 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:106
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

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  1. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-43, September.
  2. Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
  3. Jean-Philippe Cotis & Elisabeth Rignols, 1998. "Le partage de la valeur ajoutée : quelques enseignements tirés du « paradoxe franco-américain »," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 291-344.
  4. Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
  5. Layard, R. & Nickell, S., 1991. "Unemployment in the OECD Countries," Economics Series Working Papers 99130, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Ching-to Albert Ma & Andrew M. Weiss, 1990. "A Signaling Theory of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 3565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bernard Salanié & Guy Laroque, 2000. "Une décomposition du non-emploi en France," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 331(1), pages 47-66.
  8. Nickell, S., 1991. "Wages, Unemployment and Population Change," Economics Series Working Papers 99122, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Céline Prigent, 1999. "La part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée en France : une approche macroéconomique," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 323(1), pages 73-94.
  10. Sandrine Duchêne & Gérard Forgeot & Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les évolutions récentes de la productivité du travail," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 169-192.
  11. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1995. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. van Els, Peter J. A. & Locarno, Alberto & Morgan, Julian & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 0094, European Central Bank.
  15. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
  16. Jacquinot, P. & Mihoubi, F., 2000. "Modele a anticipations rationnelles de la conjoncture simulee : MARCOS," Working papers 78, Banque de France.
  17. C Bean, 1992. "European Unemployment: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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