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Have Inflation Targeting and EU labour Immigration Changed the System of Wage Formation in Norway

Author

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  • Gjelsvik, Marit Linnea

    (Statistics Norway)

  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Sparrman, Victoria

    (Statistics Norway)

Abstract

Collective agreements have played a central role in the system of wage formation in Norway for more than fifty years. Although the degree of coordination achieved has been variable, pattern wage bargaining has been a mainstay of the system. We investigate the degree of invariance in wage formation in Norway with respect to two recent structural changes: the transition towards inflation targeting in monetary policy and an unprecedented surge in labour supply due to higher immigration rates. We report empirical results that support the view that a semi-permanent high immigration may affect wages negatively in a significant way. However we do not find evidence that the stability of the arbitration system, and in particular the wage-bargaining pattern, has been changed by labour immigration or by inflation targeting monetary policy. An explanation of why we do not find evidence of structural changing effects of the transition of monetary policy, can be found in the fact that the wage arbitration system itself has syncronized the inflation expectations of the social partners. In that analysis, inflation targeting became a new layer of nominal stabilization, on top of the existing one.

Suggested Citation

  • Gjelsvik, Marit Linnea & Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria, 2015. "Have Inflation Targeting and EU labour Immigration Changed the System of Wage Formation in Norway," Memorandum 18/2015, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2015_018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    4. Aursland, Thor Andreas & Frankovic, Ivan & Kanik, Birol & Saxegaard, Magnus, 2020. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 321-353.
    5. Udemba, Edmund Ntom & Yalçıntaş, Selin, 2022. "Unveiling the symptoms of Dutch disease: A comparative and sustainable analysis of two oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Hyejin Ku & Uta Schönberg & Ragnhild C. Schreiner, 2018. "How Do Firms Respond to Place-Based Tax Incentives?," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1811, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    7. Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2020. "Immigration and the Dutch disease A counterfactual analysis of the Norwegian resource boom 2004-2013," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 669-690, July.
    8. Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman & Bjorn Dapi, 2019. "Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement. Evidence from wage data for natives," Discussion Papers 895, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation modelling; pattern wage bargaining; inflation targeting; dynamic econometrics; cointegration; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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