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Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence

Author

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  • Francesco Furlanetto

    (Norges Bank)

  • Orjan Robstad

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

We propose a new SVAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks in a sign-restricted model estimated on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. Notably, immigration is an endogenous variable in the model and can respond to the state of the economy. We find that domestic labor supply shocks and immigration shocks are well identified and are the dominant drivers of immigration dynamics. An exogenous immigration shock lowers unemployment (even among native workers), has a small positive effect on prices and on public finances, no impact on house prices and household credit, and a negative effect on productivity driven by a large decline in capital intensity. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-245
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2019.02.006
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    Cited by:

    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    2. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Mariana Vu?a & Adina Ionela Strachinaru & Sorin Iulian Cioaca, 2017. "An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 682-682, August.
    3. Stefan Schiman, . "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve: Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    5. Lozej, Matija, 2019. "Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 604-620.
    6. Lozej, Matija, 2018. "Economic Migration and Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with Matching Frictions," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Ana María Tribín-Uribe & Achyuta Adhvaryu & Cesar Anzola-Bravo & Oscar Ávila-Montealegre & Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Juan Carlos Castro-Fernández & Luz A. Flórez & Ánderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Migración desde Venezuela en Colombia: caracterización del fenómeno y análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, issue 97, pages 1-74, October.
    8. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
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    11. Benjamín García & Juan Guerra-Salas, 2020. "On the Response of Inflation and Monetary Policy to an Immigration Shock," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 872, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. George Alessandria & Minjie Deng & Yan Bai, 2019. "Sovereign Default Risk and Migration," 2019 Meeting Papers 1085, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "On the macroeconomic effects of immigration: A VAR analysis for the US," Working Papers 02/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    15. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballé & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Should I stay or should I go? Austerity, unemployment and migration," Working Papers 1839, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    16. Ana María Tribín-Uribe & Achyuta Adhvaryu & Cesar Anzola-Bravo & Oscar Ávila-Montealegre & Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Juan Carlos Castro-Fernández & Luz A. Flórez & Ánderson Grajales-Olarte & Alexander , 2020. "Migración desde Venezuela en Colombia: caracterización del fenómeno y análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 97, pages 1-74, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor supply shocks; Immigration shaocks; Job-related immigration; Identification; SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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