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Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence

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Abstract

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is crucial to achieving identification. Notably, immigration is an endogenous variable in the model and can respond to the state of the economy. We find that domestic labor supply shocks and immigration shocks are well identified and are the dominant drivers of immigration dynamics. An exogenous immigration shock lowers unemployment (even among native workers), has a positive effect on prices and on public finances in the medium run, no impact on house prices and household credit, and a negative effect on productivity.

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  • Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad, 2016. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Working Paper 2016/18, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2016_18
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    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    2. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballé & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Should I stay or should I go? Austerity, unemployment and migration," Working Papers 1839, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 26606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2018. "Immigration and Government Spending in OECD Countries," Working Papers hal-01852411, HAL.
    6. Lozej, Matija, 2019. "Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 604-620.
    7. Lewis, Vivien & Villa, Stefania & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Labor productivity, effort and the euro area business cycle," Discussion Papers 44/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Mariana Vu?a & Adina Ionela Strachinaru & Sorin Iulian Cioaca, 2017. "An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 682-682, August.
    9. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    10. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. George Alessandria & Minjie Deng & Yan Bai, 2019. "Sovereign Default Risk and Migration," 2019 Meeting Papers 1085, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "On the macroeconomic effects of immigration: A VAR analysis for the US," Working Papers 02/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    13. Benjamín García & Juan Guerra-Salas, 2020. "On the Response of Inflation and Monetary Policy to an Immigration Shock," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 872, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor supply shocks; immigration shocks; job-related immigration; identification; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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