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The impact of Ukrainian immigration on labour market dynamics in Poland: A Bayesian VAR analysis

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  • Postek, Łukasz
  • Walerych, Małgorzata

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of immigration shocks on the labour market in Poland, a country that experienced a rapid influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Our paper adds to the literature on the macroeconomic effects of immigration and to the literature that aims to disentangle various labour market shocks, focusing on war-induced immigration. We employ sign-restricted BVAR models and construct novel proxies for immigration inflows to assess their macroeconomic effects for the period 2004–2023. We find that in recent years, immigration shocks slightly lowered unemployment rate and more strongly reduced real wage growth. They also contributed to higher nominal wage growth, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants created significant consumption demand. Our findings suggest that refugee-driven migration affects the economy differently from labour-driven inflows, providing new insights into the macroeconomic consequences of Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II.

Suggested Citation

  • Postek, Łukasz & Walerych, Małgorzata, 2026. "The impact of Ukrainian immigration on labour market dynamics in Poland: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107441
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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