IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v155y2026ics0264999325004365.html

The impact of Ukrainian immigration on labour market dynamics in Poland: A Bayesian VAR analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Postek, Łukasz
  • Walerych, Małgorzata

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of immigration shocks on the labour market in Poland, a country that experienced a rapid influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Our paper adds to the literature on the macroeconomic effects of immigration and to the literature that aims to disentangle various labour market shocks, focusing on war-induced immigration. We employ sign-restricted BVAR models and construct novel proxies for immigration inflows to assess their macroeconomic effects for the period 2004–2023. We find that in recent years, immigration shocks slightly lowered unemployment rate and more strongly reduced real wage growth. They also contributed to higher nominal wage growth, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants created significant consumption demand. Our findings suggest that refugee-driven migration affects the economy differently from labour-driven inflows, providing new insights into the macroeconomic consequences of Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II.

Suggested Citation

  • Postek, Łukasz & Walerych, Małgorzata, 2026. "The impact of Ukrainian immigration on labour market dynamics in Poland: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325004365
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107441?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    2. Lozej, Matija, 2019. "Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 604-620.
    3. Ken Clark & Stephen Drinkwater, 2008. "The labour-market performance of recent migrants," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 496-517, Autumn.
    4. Kiguchi, Takehiro & Mountford, Andrew, 2019. "Immigration And Unemployment: A Macroeconomic Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1313-1339, June.
    5. Patricia Cortes, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Prices: Evidence from CPI Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 381-422, June.
    6. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    7. Dustmann Christian & Preston Ian P, 2007. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    8. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-03481876 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    10. Agostino Consolo & Filippos Petroulakis, 2024. "Did COVID‐19 induce a reallocation wave?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(364), pages 1349-1390, October.
    11. Moreno-Galbis, Eva & Tritah, Ahmed, 2016. "The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-98.
    12. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6916, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
    14. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Albert Saiz & Susan Wachter, 2011. "Immigration and the Neighborhood," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 169-188, May.
    16. Michał Gradzewicz & Jakub Growiec & Marcin Kolasa & Łukasz Postek & Paweł Strzelecki, 2018. "Poland’s uninterrupted growth performance: new growth accounting evidence," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 238-272, March.
    17. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Zhutova, Anastasia, 2018. "The cyclicality of labor-market flows: A multiple-shock approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 150-172.
    18. Aubry, Amandine & Burzyński, Michał & Docquier, Frédéric, 2016. "The welfare impact of global migration in OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-21.
    19. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2020. "Immigration and remittances in a two-country model of growth with labor market frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 675-692.
    20. Stefan Schiman, 2021. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve: Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 108-127, April.
    21. Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò & Vella, Eugenia, 2021. "Does immigration grow the pie? Asymmetric evidence from Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    22. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    23. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit, 2018. "Labor Supply Factors And Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1491-1510, August.
    24. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    25. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    26. Moreno-Galbis, Eva & Tritah, Ahmed, 2016. "The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-98.
    27. Małgorzata Walerych, 2024. "The aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 99-143, February.
    28. Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2021. "Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3491-3545.
    29. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    30. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    31. Agostino Consolo & Claudia Foroni & Catalina Martínez Hernández, 2023. "A Mixed Frequency BVAR for the Euro Area Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 1048-1082, October.
    32. Saul Lach, 2007. "Immigration and Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 548-587, August.
    33. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    34. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    35. Sergii Kiiashko & Paweł Kopiec, 2022. "Labor Market Integration and Fiscal Competition," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 157-185, February.
    36. Maciej Duszczyk & Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2022. "The War in Ukraine and Migration to Poland: Outlook and Challenges," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 164-170, May.
    37. Paweł Strzelecki & Jakub Growiec & Robert Wyszyński, 2022. "The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 365-399, May.
    38. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2019. "Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1994-2025, July.
    39. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    40. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2022. "The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 163-198, July.
    41. Martins, Pedro S. & Piracha, Matloob & Varejão, José, 2018. "Do immigrants displace native workers? Evidence from matched panel data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 216-222.
    42. Liesbet Okkerse, 2008. "How To Measure Labour Market Effects Of Immigration: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, February.
    43. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Time-Varying Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 319-338, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    2. Achyuta Adhvaryu, Cesar Anzola-Bravo Ana María Tribín-Uribe & Leonardo Bonilla-Mej�a, Juan Carlos Castro-Fern�ndez Oscar �vila-Montealegre & �nderson Grajales-Olarte, Alexander Guar�n Luz A. Fl�rez & , 2020. "Migración desde Venezuela en Colombia: caracterización del fenómeno y análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 97, pages 1-74.
    3. Franz Hamann & Cesar Anzola & Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Juan Carlos Castro-Fernandez & Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Alexander Guarín & Juan C Mendez-Vizcaino & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Mario A. Ramos-Ve, 2021. "Monetary Policy Response to a Migration Shock: An Analysis for a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 1153, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Germano Ruisi, 2020. "An Assessment of the Macroeconomic Implications of Foreign and Domestic Labour Supply Shocks in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/06/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    5. Benjamín García & Juan Guerra-Salas, 2025. "On the Response of Inflation and Monetary Policy to an Immigration Shock," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 383-433.
    6. Bernt Bratsberg & Oddbjørn Raaum, 2012. "Immigration and Wages: Evidence from Construction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1177-1205, December.
    7. Stefan Schiman, 2021. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve: Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 108-127, April.
    8. Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello, 2021. "Free labor mobility and indeterminacy in models of neoclassical growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 27-46, June.
    9. Bandeira, Guilherme & Caballé, Jordi & Vella, Eugenia, 2022. "Emigration and fiscal austerity in a depression," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López‐Bazo, 2021. "Immigration and Native Employment. Evidence from Italian Provinces in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 405-428, April.
    11. Małgorzata Walerych, 2024. "The aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 99-143, February.
    12. Parisa Ghasemi & Paulino Teixeira & Carlos Carreira, 2024. "Immigrants and the Portuguese labor market: Threat or Advantage?," CeBER Working Papers 2024-02, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    13. Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò & Vella, Eugenia, 2021. "Does immigration grow the pie? Asymmetric evidence from Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Ekrame Boubtane, 2019. "Les effets économiques de l’immigration pour les pays d’accueil," Post-Print hal-03067790, HAL.
    15. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    16. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2026. "Explaining deviations from Okun’s law," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Anthony Edo, 2017. "The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War," CESifo Working Paper Series 6595, CESifo.
    18. Marcus H. Böhme & Sarah Kups, 2017. "The economic effects of labour immigration in developing countries: A literature review," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 335, OECD Publishing.
    19. Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello, 2022. "Migration and growth in a Schumpeterian growth model with creative destruction [A model of growth through creative destruction]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1139-1166.
    20. Busch, Christopher & Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2020. "Should Germany have built a new wall? Macroeconomic lessons from the 2015-18 refugee wave," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-55.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.