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Labor Market Dynamics: A Time-Varying Analysis

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  • Haroon Mumtaz
  • Francesco Zanetti

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="obes12096-abs-0001"> This paper studies how key labour market stylized facts and the responses of labour market variables to technology shocks vary over the US postwar period. It uses a benchmark dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model enriched with labour market frictions and investment-specific technological progress that enables a novel identification scheme based on sign restrictions on a SVAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Key findings are: (i) the volatility in job finding and separation rates has declined over time, while their correlation varies across time; (ii) the job finding rate plays an important role for unemployment, and the two series are strongly negatively correlated over the sample period; (iii) the magnitude of the response of labour market variables to technology shocks varies across the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Time-Varying Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 319-338, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:77:y:2015:i:3:p:319-338
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/obes.2015.77.issue-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Qureshi, Irfan A., 2021. "The Role Of Money In Federal Reserve Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2037-2057, December.
    2. Olli-Matti Juhani Laine, 2020. "The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2899-2924, December.
    3. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    5. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Moura, Guilherme V. & Noriller, Mateus R., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a TVP-VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 78-83.
    7. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
    8. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series WP 2022-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
    11. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," Economics Series Working Papers 856, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    13. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    14. Crawley, Andrew & Welch, Sarah & Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Improving estimates of job matching efficiency with different measures of unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    16. Philip Liu & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 391-404, July.
    17. Josh Beverly & Shamar L. Stewart & Clinton L. Neill, 2023. "The dynamics of labor force participation: Is all quiet on the Appalachian front?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2867-2898, December.
    18. Maximilian Boeck & Christian Glocker, 2025. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission," WIFO Working Papers 713, WIFO.
    19. Zens, Gregor & Böck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2020. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the US labor market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Michael Ellington & Chris Martin & Bingsong Wang, 2024. "Evolving Beveridge Curve Dynamics," Working Papers 2024007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    21. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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