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Maximum likelihood estimation of a TVP-VAR

Author

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  • Moura, Guilherme V.
  • Noriller, Mateus R.

Abstract

This paper proposes the maximum likelihood estimation of a vector autoregression with drifting coefficients and multivariate stochastic volatility. The coefficients are assumed to follow heteroscedastic random walks and the volatility of the system is modeled as a Wishart process, increasing the flexibility in describing the behavior of stochastic covariances. Exploiting the conjugacy between Normal, Wishart and multivariate beta distributions, filtering formulas for tracking the latent states and expression for the likelihood function can be obtained in closed form.

Suggested Citation

  • Moura, Guilherme V. & Noriller, Mateus R., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a TVP-VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 78-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:174:y:2019:i:c:p:78-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.10.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Patrick Hartkopf, 2023. "Composite forecasting of vast-dimensional realized covariance matrices using factor state-space models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 393-436, January.
    2. Roberto Leon‐Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2025. "Exact likelihood for inverse gamma stochastic volatility models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 774-795, July.
    3. Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A. P. & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2019. "Comparing Forecasts of Extremely Large Conditional Covariance Matrices," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 29291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhang, Zhongqingyang & Mao, Weifang, 2022. "Time-frequency transmission mechanism of EPU, investor sentiment and financial assets: A multiscale TVP-VAR connectedness analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P. & Ruiz, Esther, 2020. "Comparing high-dimensional conditional covariance matrices: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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