IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v24y2013i5p853-879.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Pål Boug

    ()

  • Ådne Cappelen
  • Torbjørn Eika

Abstract

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 853-879, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:853-879 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-013-9271-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-013-9271-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 647-668.
    2. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 1243-1272.
    4. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    5. Naug, Bjorn & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. " Pricing to Market in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 329-350.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 117-153.
    7. Pål Boug & Andreas Fagereng, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 851-864.
    8. Håvard Hungnes, 2011. "A demand system for input factors when there are technological changes in production," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 581-600.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 155-183.
    10. Håvard Hungnes, 2008. "A Demand System for Input Factors when there are Technological Changes in Production," Discussion Papers 556, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 133-160.
    12. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
    13. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1189-1214.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayako Saiki, 2015. "The Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Some European Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 893-909, November.
    2. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2013. "The importance of the distribution sector for exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy. A large scale macroeconometric modelling approach," Discussion Papers 731, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Suparna Chakraborty & Yi Tang & Liuren Wu, 2015. "Imports, Exports, Dollar Exposures, and Stock Returns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1059-1079, November.
    4. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    5. Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2017. "Immigration and the Dutch disease. A counterfactual analysis of the Norwegian resource boom 2004-2013," Discussion Papers 860, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Pricing behaviour; The distribution sector; Econometric modelling and macroeconomic analysis; C51; C52; E31; F31;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:853-879. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.