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The New Keynesian Phillips curve tested on OECD panel data

  • Bjørnstad, Roger
  • Nymoen, Ragnar

In their work, Galí, Gertler and Lopez-Salido, GGL, assert that the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) with dominance of forward-looking behavior and real marginal costs is robust to choices of estimation procedure, details of variables definitions and choice of data samples. In an estimation on panel data from OECD countries we replicate the typical empirical NPC from country studies. However, we also test an alternative economic interpretation of the empirical correlations. Specifically we find that the expected rate of future inflation and real marginal costs serve as replacements for equilibrium correction terms that are implied by the general imperfect competition model of wage and price setting. As a explanatory model of OECD inflation, the NPC is encompassed by an existing theory.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-4.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:6988
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  1. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
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  4. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward-looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, 09.
  5. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2001. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  6. Luca Nunziata, 2001. "Institutions and Wage Determination: a Multi-Country Approach," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W29, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  13. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, March.
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  16. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  18. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
  19. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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