IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The importance of the distribution sector for exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy. A large scale macroeconometric modelling approach

Registered author(s):

    The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/nasjonalregnskap-og-konjunkturer/artikler-og-publikasjoner/_attachment/93283?_ts=13c8aa35af8
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 731.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:731
    Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway
    Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00
    Fax: (+47) 21 09 49 73
    Web page: http://www.ssb.no/en/Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2000. "Deviations from purchasing power parity: causes and welfare costs," International Finance Discussion Papers 666, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. John K. Dagsvik & Tom Kornstad & Terje Skjerpen, 2010. "Labor force participation and the discouraged worker effect," Discussion Papers 642, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibiity," Working Papers 0016, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    6. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
    7. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
    8. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Swensen, 2006. "Expectations and regime robustness in price formation: evidence from vector autoregressive models and recursive methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 821-845, November.
    9. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, March.
    10. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    11. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1996. "Investment, pass-through, and exchange rates: a cross-country comparison," Staff Reports 14, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Matteo Bugamelli & Roberto Tedeschi, 2008. "Pricing-to-Market and Market Structure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 155-180, 04.
    13. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," International Finance 0004002, EconWPA.
    15. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2008. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 236-40, May.
    16. Naug, Bjorn & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. " Pricing to Market in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 329-50.
    17. Charles Engel, 1999. "Local-Currency Pricing and the Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," Working Papers 0036, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    19. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    21. Håvard Hungnes, 2008. "A Demand System for Input Factors when there are Technological Changes in Production," Discussion Papers 556, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    22. Bowitz, Einar & Cappelen, Adne, 2001. "Modeling income policies: some Norwegian experiences 1973-1993," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 349-379, August.
    23. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gonzalez Minguez, Jose M., 2006. "Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-145, January.
    24. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    25. Terje Skjerpen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2000. "Testing for long-run homogeneity in the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System An application on Norwegian quarterly data for non-durables," Discussion Papers 289, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    26. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices," Staff Report 404, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    27. Eilev S. Jansen, 2010. "Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway," Discussion Papers 616, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    28. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    29. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Bjørnstad, Roger & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve Tested on OECD Panel Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-18.
    31. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
    32. Hoel, Michael & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1988. "Wage formation in norwegian manufacturing: An empirical application of a theoretical bargaining model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 977-997, April.
    33. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    34. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    35. H�vard Hungnes, 2010. "Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 551-565, 08.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:731. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (J Bruusgaard)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.