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Une décomposition du non-emploi en France

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  • Guy Laroque
  • Bernard Salanié

Abstract

[eng] Three components are singled out from a breakdown of 3.25 million unemployed individuals aged 25 to 49 in the March 1997 Employment survey. The first is a group of people who do not want to work given their family situation, their state of health, the wage that they could expect to get and the complex set of tax and social security contributions and social transfers. This voluntary non-employment accounts for 57% of the total. The second component is classical non-employment: 20% of those without a job would like to work, but are not productive enough to aspire to more than the minimum wage. The remaining 23% form other non-employment. This heterogeneous group comprises people who, for various reasons, cannot find a job even though they want to work and have the necessary qualifications. . Two simulations are used to study the possible long-run effects of measures affecting mainly the classical component of non-employment. The measures introduced in 1997 to reduce charges on low wages should create approximately 500,000 jobs in the long run. However, a 10% increase in the minimum wage would destroy approximately 290,000 jobs in the long run. [fre] Une décomposition de 3,25 millions de personnes de 25 à 49 ans sans emploi à l’enquête Emploi de mars 1997 conduit à isoler trois composantes. La première regroupe les personnes qui ne souhaitent pas travailler, compte tenu de leur situation familiale, de leur état de santé, du salaire auquel elles peuvent prétendre et du jeu complexe des prélèvements fiscaux et des transferts sociaux: ce non-emploi volontaire forme 57 % de l’ensemble. La deuxième composante est le non-emploi classique: 20 % des personnes sans emploi souhaitent travailler mais ne sont pas assez productives pour prétendre à un salaire supérieur au Smic. Enfin, les 23 % restant forment l’autre non-emploi: cette catégorie hétérogène rassemble les personnes qui, pour des raisons diverses, ne trouvent pas d’emploi malgré leur désir de travailler et une qualification suffisante. Deux simulations permettent d’étudier les effets possibles, dans le long terme, de mesures affectant principalement la composante classique du non-emploi. Les mesures d’allégements de charges sur les bas salaires en vigueur en 1997 devraient créer à long terme environ 500 000 emplois. En revanche, une augmentation de 10 % du Smic détruirait environ 290 000 emplois, toujours à long terme. [spa] Una descomposición de aquellas 3,25 millones de personas de 25 a 49 años sin empleo de la encuesta Empleo de marzo de 1997 nos lleva a aislar tres componentes. El primer componente reúne a aquellas personas que no desean trabajar, teniendo en cuenta su situación familiar, su estado de salud, el salario que pueden exigir y el juego complejo de los gravámenes fiscales y de las transferencias sociales: este no empleo voluntario constituye el 57 % del conjunto. El segundo componente es el no empleo clásico: el 20 % de las personas sin empleo desean trabajar pero no son lo . suficientemente productivas para exigir un salario superior al salario mínimo interprofesional. En fin, el 23 % restante constituye el otro no empleo: esta categoría heterogénea reúne a las personas que por motivos varios no encuentra un empleo pese a su deseo de trabajar y a una cualificación suficiente. . Dos simulaciones permiten estudiar las consecuencias posibles a largo plazo de unas medidas que actúen esencialmente en el componente clásico del no empleo. Las medidas de disminución de las cargas sobre los bajos salarios vigentes en 1997 deberían crear a largo plazo unos 500 000 empleos. En cambio, un aumento del 10 % del salario mínimo destruiría unos 290 000 empleos también a largo plazo. [ger] Die Zerlegung der Gruppe der 3,25 Millionen erwerbslosen Personen zwischen 25 und 49 Jahren im Rahmen der Beschäftigungserhebung von März 1997 führt zur Identifizierung von drei Komponenten. Die erste umfaßt die Personen, die aufgrund ihrer Familienlage, ihres Gesundheitszustands, des Lohns, den sie verlangen können, und des komplexen Spiels von Steuerabgaben und Sozialtransfers nicht arbeiten möchten: auf diese freiwillige Nichtbeschäftigung entfallen 57% aller Erwerbslosen. Die zweite Komponente stellt die klassische Nichtbeschäftigung dar: 20% der Erwerbslosen möchten zwar arbeiten, sind aber nicht ausreichend produktiv, um einen höheren Lohn als den Mindestlohn verlangen zu können. Die restlichen 23% bilden schließlich die andere Nichtbeschäftigung: zu dieser heterogenen Kategorie gehören die Menschen, die aus vielfältigen Gründen keine Arbeit finden, obwohl sir arbeiten wollen und über eine ausreichende Qualifikation verfügen. . Zwei Simulationen ermöglichen es, die langfristigen Auswirkungen von Maßnahmen zu untersuchen, die hauptsächlich die klassische Komponente der Nichtbeschäftigung beeinflussen. Die 1997 getroffenen Maßnahmen zur Absenkung der Abgaben auf Niedriglöhne dürften langfristig zur Schaffung von rund 500 000 Arbeitsplätzen führen. Dagegen würde eine Erhöhung des Mindestlohns um 10% - ebenfalls langfristig -ca. 290 000 Arbeitsplätze vernichten.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy Laroque & Bernard Salanié, 2000. "Une décomposition du non-emploi en France," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 331(1), pages 47-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2000_num_331_1_6789
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2000.6789
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2000.6789
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    2. Guy Laroque & Bernard Salanié, 1999. "Prélèvements et transferts sociaux : une analyse descriptive des incitations financières au travail," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 328(1), pages 3-19.
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